In addition to ASML, Adyen also scores highly among the investment experts who participated in the stock market survey by Corné van Zeijl of Cardano. The price drop apparently offers a buying opportunity. You should be careful with Philips after the recent price rise.
In last month’s poll, investment experts were already somewhat skeptical about the direction of the stock market. The AEX index had risen above average for five months in a row, which led to some fear of heights.
That slight gloom turned out to be justified. The AEX index fell by 0.2%. That could have been worse, but thanks to the price explosion of Philips last Monday, the damage was limited. The MSCI ACWI (with large and mid-cap stocks from 23 developed and 24 emerging countries) fell by 2.5% in euro terms.
Almost 40% expect the AEX to fall this month
The experts are a lot more pessimistic for May. 38.3% think the AEX index will fall and more than one in five expect an increase. “Some experts think we are dancing on a volcano,” Van Zeijl writes with some sense of drama.
These are the expectations for May:
- 21.7% are optimistic (down from 30.9% last month)
- 40.0% are neutral (compared to 34.5% in April)
- 38.3% are pessimistic (compared to 34.5% last time)
- Balance: -16.7% (was -3.6%)
…but private investors are considerably more optimistic
This means that the experts are once again considerably more gloomy than 924 private investors who participated in the latest measurement of National Investor Sentiment by IEX. No fewer than 48.8% of them expect the AEX index to rise by more than 2% this month. Only 9.6% foresee a decline.
The picture for the next 6 months is a bit gloomy
The fact that the AEX index has already had quite a ride also seems to play a role in the expectations of stock market experts for the next six months. 25% think that the AEX will have risen further in six months. A slightly larger percentage (28.3%) thinks that the index will then be lower.
Van Zeijl does not find this strange. He points out that history shows that the stock market performs significantly worse from May to October than in the other months. You can read how that works in this article.
These are the expectations of the 60 participating experts for the next six months:
- 25.0% are optimistic (which was 29.1% last month)
- 46.7% are neutral (compared to 41.8% in March)
- 28.3% are pessimistic (which was 29.1%)
- Balance: -3.3% (was 0.0%)
Here too, private investors have a much brighter outlook. More than two-thirds of IEX readers think that the AEX will rise in the next six months and only 11.8% predict a decline.
April stock choices: Philips messes up returns
A permanent part of the Stock Market Survey is the overview of the stock market experts’ most and least favorite shares: the toppers and floppers. How well did the participants in the previous poll do?
Last week it became clear that an unexpected event can sometimes turn everything upside down. Philips was already number five in the dreaded right-hand row, partly due to the drawn-out affair with sleep apnea devices. On Monday, the healthcare technology company reported earlier than expected that it had reached a settlement. The settlement amount was also much lower than feared. This led to a huge price explosion, which of course had an impact on the return of a fictitious long/short fund of the chosen shares.
ASML and ABN Amro also did not live up to the high expectations. Otherwise the choices were pretty decent. Shell made a nice sprint and Besi, Arcelor Mittal and Randstad did what they had to do: descend.
The readers of IEX were also surprised by Philips (and ASML). Professional investors would have lost 3.6% with a fictitious long/short fund. They did slightly better than the IEX readers, who on balance would have lost 5.0%.
| Toppers April | Efficiency | Floppers April | Efficiency |
| ASML | -6.7% | Phillips | +35.7% |
| Shell | +9.0% | Besi | -11.6% |
| ABN Amro | -4.8% | Exor | +1.7% |
| Ahold Delhaize | +2.6% | Randstad | -3.5% |
| KPN | -1.7% | Arcelor Mittal | -7.3% |
| DSM Firmenich | +0.3% | Heineken | +2.2% |
Stock picks for May: ASML and Adyen favorite
Finally, the choices for May. Which shares have the best cards according to investment professionals and which ones should we avoid?
ASML is again at the top of the shopping list. The share feels the hot breath of Adyen on the neck, which fell sharply after figures at the end of April. Apparently the stock market experts see a great buying opportunity in the price drop. You can read here whether the IEX Investor Desk also thinks so.
According to the experts, Shell’s price rise has not yet come to an end and DSM Firmenich is also on the buying list.
In the eyes of the investment pros, you should be careful with Philips. A correction cannot be ruled out. IMCD and the chippers ASMI and – again – Besi follow at a great distance.
| Toppers May | Balance* | Floppers May | Balance* |
| ASML | 6 | Phillips | -15 |
| Adyen | 5 | IMCD | -3 |
| Shell | 4 | ASMI | -2 |
| DSM Firmenich | 3 | Besi | -2 |
* The balance represents the number of positive answers minus the number of negative answers.
ASML also tops the list of private investors’ favorites
ASML is also a favorite among IEX readers and Philips is at the top of the list of stocks to watch out for. They also agree on the choice of IMCD and Besi in the flop list.
Furthermore, the two groups have quite different opinions. Private investors are still charmed by the insurers NN Group and Aegon. Prosus and ASMI also appear on their buying list. According to your fellow investors, Randstad and Arcelor Mittal should be avoided this month.
