With Western weapons on the way, Russia is doing everything it can in Ukraine

• Christiaan Paauwe

  correspondent Central and Eastern Europe

• Wessel de Jong

  news reporter

Military transports drive to and from Tchasiv Yar. A broken-down army jeep is taken away on a semi-trailer while a fighter jet flies overhead at a height of 50 meters to attack Russian positions. It is clear that there is hard fighting around the city.

On the way to an artillery position, the Ukrainian soldier behind the wheel points to a few chimneys visible on a hill in the distance. “That’s Chasiv Yar, 9 kilometers away.” Are the new American arms deliveries already arriving? No, according to the soldier they are still on their way. In the distance, bangs of fire going out can be heard.

Howitzer Commander Ivan from Lviv, West Ukraine, is certainly not at ease. Camouflaged from Russian drones hovering over the battlefield, his American Paladin cannon is positioned near a forest edge. “The situation has changed here. It is getting hot here, as they say. They are trying to encircle us from the north and south. And then it will be difficult for the infantry and artillery to get out of here.”

Unit commander Ivan seems afraid of a scenario like the one that occurred at the beginning of this year in the fallen city of Avdiivka, about 80 kilometers south. The Ukrainian High Command decided too late to withdraw, resulting in many soldiers ending up in a Russian trap. They were killed or captured.

Ivan’s fear is understandable, because the Russians are advancing faster and faster. And that means he could be surprised. Last spring, the Russian army took the hard-fought Bachmut. From Bachmut to Chasiv Yar is 6 kilometers; It took the attackers about a year to do this. But the Russians have now covered that same distance south of Ivan’s position in a week.

Ukrainian army increasingly in trouble at the front

Chasiv Yar is strategically important for the battle in the Donbas. Because it is located on a hill, Russia could target supply routes from the city to other positions. This also endangers the defense of important cities such as Kramatorsk and Slovjansk.

And while Ivan is now fighting with one hand tied behind his back. “We shoot with 155-millimeter grenades, the NATO standard. I have enough for now. But there is still very little in storage, I understand. They absolutely need to be replenished,” says the soldier.

In addition, Ukraine does not have enough troops. This type of artillery units also suffers from this, confirms brigade spokesperson Andrii. “It’s intensive work,” he says. Partly due to the large losses on the Ukrainian side, soldiers cannot be rotated enough and they become exhausted because they have been at the front for too long.

Andrii hopes that this will change quickly with a new mobilization law in Ukraine, which stipulates that from now on 25 and 26 year olds can also be called up for military service. “But we only want guys who are also motivated, not guys who were picked off the street and don’t actually want to.”

The Russians also know that the Ukrainians now have too little ammunition and men. According to analysts, that is the reason why they are now doing everything they can to chase the defenders out of Chasiv Yar. The Russians are now taking full advantage of this moment of weakness, because once Western military support resumes, it will become more difficult to tackle the Ukrainians.

The main military support for the Ukrainians comes from the United States. That aid worth more than 60 billion dollars, which was finally given the green light last week, took more than six months to arrive due to political struggles in Congress.

And then there is a more political reason why the Russians are now throwing everything into battle. The High Command wants to present a victory to President Putin on May 9. That is the day when the victory over Nazi Germany is celebrated. The Kremlin presents the war as a battle against Kyiv, which Russia consistently portrays as fascist. The Kremlin draws a straight line from the Second War to the present as a justification for the invasion of Ukraine.

“Chasiv Yar is clearly very important to them,” says unit commander Ivan. “But we are not going to hand it over. We are going to disturb them as much as possible. Because it will cause big problems if we withdraw here.”