In the past it seemed like a law during a formation: the less that comes out, the better things go at the negotiating table. If that rule still applies, things look bleak for informants Richard van Zwol and Elbert Dijkgraaf, who must provide a definitive answer to the House of Representatives by May 15: will the PVV, VVD, NSC and BBB jointly support an extra-parliamentary cabinet, or not?
Next Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday (Thursday is Ascension Day) are crucial negotiation days in what informant Van Zwol has already called ‘the final week’. Based on the calculations of the Central Planning Bureau (CPB), the forming parties must make compromises for an outline agreement, which will serve as the basis for a new program cabinet with an as yet unknown prime minister.
The run-up to the final week is entirely in the style of this formation: turbulent. Last week, as has often happened in recent months, details about a sensitive negotiation file were on the street. This time about the pension reforms. The weekly magazine EW reported that PVV and BBB have lifted their opposition to the new pension system, in exchange for an additional investment of 25 billion from pension funds in Dutch housing construction and energy transition. “Only Omtzigt still stands firm in his opposition to the new pension system,” he said EW.
Behind the scenes, the angry looks initially went to Pieter Omtzigt’s party, where the leak was suspected. No deal has yet been concluded at the formation table and PVV and BBB would take the same position as NSC.
Edges of the law
The breathing space in the formation ends as it began: with grumpy about a leak. Revealed at the end of April News hour that the negotiating parties are considering officially declaring the asylum influx a national crisis. This offers the opportunity to introduce stricter policy through emergency legislation, although it is expected that this approach will ultimately fail in court. Only NSC would have principled objections to deliberately pushing the edges of the law, according to reports.
Wilders could barely suppress his irritation about the leaking of the plans. “I’m not going to respond to it, because then you reward people who leak pieces.” This week, the PVV leader threatened again with new elections if a more restrictive asylum policy is not introduced. ‘We are 2.5 million people, now many more, who have had enough of the relentless asylum influx that is disrupting the Netherlands,’ Wilders said on X. ‘So those stricter measures will come. Preferably now and not after new elections.’
This formation writes its own laws, including strategic leaks, barely concealed mutual grumpiness and open flirting with new elections. Yet the four negotiating parties still have one thing in common: no one is willing to put an end to the difficult exercise for the time being.
No decisions have been made
After the latest leak this week about the pension reform, the opposite sentiment was also noticeable: let’s quickly conclude an outline agreement, then we will be freed from each other for the time being. All that remains is to put together a team of ministers and then the PVV, VVD, NSC and BBB can watch from their own seats in the House of Representatives to see how the extra-parliamentary cabinet will fare.
Whether that stage will ever be reached remains to be seen in the coming days. No decisions have yet been made on major dossiers, such as asylum, pensions, housing and agriculture, and the exchange between parties still has to take place, informant Van Zwol previously acknowledged. The former top official nevertheless expressed moderate optimism about a positive outcome. ‘Without saying that it is all 100 percent, but you do notice that they understand each other better about how they are involved in the whole story.’
Van Zwol did not say so, but the lack of an attractive alternative remains the main motivation for the negotiating parties. Wilders will have felt supported this week by a poll of One today, which showed that more than 60 percent of voters believe that new elections should be held if this formation fails. Only 36 percent see an attempt on the left with GL-PvdA.
Painful compromises
Yet Wilders will also wonder whether new elections will redeem him. After that, he will have to look for partners to work with again. There is a considerable chance that the same parties as now will be at the table again.
The devastated VVD and vulnerable party leader Dilan Yesilgöz are certainly not in favor of going to the polls again. At the same time, the party is not ready to seek refuge with GroenLinks-PvdA. Polls have long indicated that an overwhelming majority of their own supporters will not accept that One todayresearch confirmed again this week.
NSC is in a similar position. Their own voters have little interest in a left-wing route and new elections would symbolize the ungovernability of the country, while the NSC was founded to improve governance. For the time being, Omtzigt has little choice but to continue negotiating against the odds.
The finals week will reveal whether the parties are prepared to make painful compromises under those circumstances. No one is enthusiastic and anything can still go wrong, but everyone is still at the table. If this remains the case in the coming days, an extra-parliamentary cabinet could even be in place before the summer.
