British Conservatives lose ‘almost catastrophically’ in local elections

‘Almost catastrophic’ were the words used by election expert and professor John Curtice on Friday morning to describe the first results of the local elections. Almost everywhere the Conservatives lost council seats, both to Labor and the Liberal Democrats. Even Aldershot was lost, home to the British army in southern England, as well as north Yorkshire, where Sunak is a deputy. In Stockport a Labor candidate named Karl Marx (Karl Peter Marx Wardlaw) was elected.

A bright spot for the Conservatives is the retention of Harlow, a small town above London where Labor leader Sir Keir Starmer had visited several times during the campaign. Labor had hoped to win in this commuter town, which serves as an electoral barometer.

Another setback for Labor was the result in Oldham, where it lost the majority on the council. In this predominantly Muslim suburb of Manchester, the pro-Palestinian party of socialist George Galloway made off with the loot.

Conservatives stayed home

The Conservatives also suffered a historic defeat in a by-election in the south of Blackpool, a famous beach resort on the Irish Sea. Hereby by-election, necessary after a lobbying scandal by the sitting MP, 26 percent of Tories went to Labour, the third largest swing since the war. It was not that the Labor candidate won more votes than in the previous election, on the contrary. Conservative voters appeared to have stayed home en masse.

This pattern was also visible in previous midterm elections. It is not so much a victory for Labor as a defeat for the Conservatives. There are numerous reasons for the dissatisfaction, such as increased immigration, disappointing Brexit results, Boris Johnson’s partying during corona, Liz Truss’s failed economic gamble, the lethargic economy and incompetent government.

Moreover, the Conservatives have been in government for fourteen years. After such a long time, there is a need for a change of power: New Labor was out of government in 2010 after thirteen years.

Credibility

There was a bright spot for the Conservatives in the northeast of the country, where Conservative regional mayor Ben Houchen was re-elected. His party colleague Andy Street will probably also be able to remain as regional mayor of the West Midlands.

Looking at the losses, the Conservative Party chairman said ruling parties usually take a beating. The problem now is that no upward trend can be observed.

The parliamentary elections must be held before the end of the year. Sunak himself can decide the date. There are calls within the party to replace Sunak with a leader with more charisma. Yet another leadership change could undermine credibility: the Tories have had five different prime ministers in the last eight years.

Some Tories regret ousting Johnson two years ago. The former prime minister is good at winning elections. When he cast his vote on Thursday, he was shown the door because he did not have an ID card with him; he himself had introduced the mandatory display of identification at the polling station.