NOS News•today, 9:18 PM•Amended today, 9:32 PM
Once again, Israel and Gaza are engaged in negotiations over a possible ceasefire. On Saturday, Israel presented a new proposal, which US Secretary of State Blinken today called extremely generous. “Only Hamas now stands in the way of a ceasefire,” he said. His British colleague Cameron also said that all the pressure is now on Hamas to accept the deal.
It is the latest attempt by negotiators to reach a lull in fighting between Hamas and Israel. After the week-long pause in fighting in November, a few weeks after the outbreak of war, all talk of another pause in fighting came to nothing. The proposal now on the table would call for a 40-day ceasefire that could possibly be extended.
According to Israeli media, Israel is proposing to release 100 Palestinian prisoners in exchange for fewer than 40 hostages.
It is the first time that the door is slightly ajar for a permanent ceasefire.
“A ceasefire seems closer this time because both sides broadly agree in principle,” says Omar Dweik, Middle East expert at Tilburg University. “Last time, the proposal was rejected in advance by Hamas.”
The fact that a break in the fighting seems to be a step closer this time has to do with the content of the proposal, Dweik thinks. “It is the first time that the door is ajar for a permanent ceasefire, which is a firm demand of Hamas.”
Tricky points
Even though both parties appear to agree in broad terms, there are still some points that need to be negotiated. “The parties have accepted the framework, but the race is not yet over. A tricky point, for example, is how many prisoners are exchanged for how many hostages. That could be a problem,” says Dweik.
In addition, there is the threat of Israel invading Rafah. According to Israel, the southern border town of Rafah is Hamas’s last stronghold. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu announced in February that he had ordered the army to evacuate Palestinian civilians from Rafah and eliminate the remaining Hamas fighters.
The European Union last month called on Israel not to launch a ground offensive in Rafah that would “aggravate the already catastrophic humanitarian situation.” Many Palestinian residents of the Gaza Strip fled to Rafah and have been living in tent camps ever since. Israel’s foreign minister said last weekend that an incursion into Rafah may be suspended if a ceasefire is reached. But there is much resistance within Netanyahu’s government to a truce.
Netanyahu interest
It may be that the raid on Rafah serves as a means of pressure to achieve the ceasefire, says Dweik, “so that we have to make fewer far-reaching concessions.” But there is also Netanyahu’s personal interest at play.
Israel’s far-right finance minister warned yesterday that he will topple Netanyahu’s government if the Rafah offensive is called off. The Minister of National Security supported him. Minister without portfolio Gantz advocates focusing on the return of the hostages. Opposition leader Lapid also sees this as a priority in the negotiations.
“Netanyahu is literally fighting for his political and free life,” Dweik said. A long-running corruption trial is underway against the Israeli prime minister. Last year, a law was passed in Israel that makes it more difficult to declare a sitting prime minister unfit and force him to resign. This law also protects him against possible legal problems associated with the corruption process. It is therefore of great importance to Netanyahu personally to remain prime minister and keep his government together.
Netanyahu may wait until he gets an easier partner in the United States after the next presidential elections and try to buy time, Dweik says. “But the question is how long Israel can keep this up.”
