Israel-Gaza latest: Netanyahu issues defiant comments after Biden warning – as world awaits Rafah decision and Palestinians flee | WorldNews

By Mark Stone, US correspondent

All decisions have intended consequences and unintended consequences.

The intended consequence of President Biden’s threat to stop sending some weapons to Israel is straightforward: to stop the Israeli military from going into Rafah without a clear, deliverable plan for the civilian population.

But there are so many unintended consequences.

Both geopolitically and domestically for President Biden this decision could come to haunt him.

Even before we consider the unintended consequence, there is a key point: the perils of setting red lines.

Too often they turn out to be flawed tools of geo-political diplomacy.

What if Netanyahu bulldozes through the red line and invades Rafah?

He’s probably got enough American weapons in storage to do that.

Will Biden stick to his threat to pull weapons delivery? Or will he relent? What message will both of those choices send, far and wide?

That brings us on to the unintended consequences. First, the regional consequences:

• Could there be a greater numbers of civilian casualties? If Netanyahu continues with his Rafah operation but with a dwindling supply of American weapons (so-called smart bombs) then he will use less sophisticated “dumb bombs”. This could cause even more civilian casualties;
• What message does it sends regionally? That America could be seen to abandon Israel (despite that not being what Biden said) will not be lost on countries around the world. It suggests that America is flaky with its alliances. For months, Biden has dismissed calls to limit weapons supplies. Now he’s U-turned. Gulf countries already wonder about the stability of America as an ally. While they will agree with his announcement last night, the wider message it sends will resonate;
• Does it embolden Iran? Limiting weapons to its oldest Middle Eastern ally at a time of profound danger for Israel is being seen by some as a gift for Tehran;
• What impact will it have on ceasefire negotiations? It’s logical that Hamas may see this decision as weakening Israel and may therefore hold out in the ongoing negotiations to get more out of them.

Then there are the domestic political consequences.

They were spelled out by his presidential opponent, Donald Trump who said: “What Biden is doing with respect to Israel is disgraceful. If any Jewish person voted for Joe Biden, they should be ashamed of themselves. He’s totally abandoned Israel and nobody can believe it.”

President Biden has already alienated key sections of the voter population with his existing Gaza policy.

By supporting Netanyahu unequivocally, he has angered key Arab-American populations in places like Michigan – a state he needs to win in November. Beyond that, students (many of whom would be natural Biden voters) say they now can’t vote for him and “genocide Joe” is their cry.

Now, with his weapons announcement, he risks alienating Jewish-American voters too. Many are deeply angry at what they see as an abandonment of the Jewish State.

His badly articulated insistence that he will still have Israel’s back in terms of defense will be lost on many voters. They only see the headline.

Remember too that pretty much all Republicans are against every lever he pulls to clean in Israel; they want nothing less than unequivocal support for Israel.

More than that though – a significant number of his own Democrats are also uncomfortable about America limiting weapons for Israel. Only the progressive left of his party supports his move.

It is a perilous political push-me-pull-you and the election is six months away.