By Fortune Abang
Mr Ali Khwaja, Chairman of KTrade Securities, a Pakistani-based stock and commodity outfit, has predicted a decline in US dollar value globally in the coming years.
Khwaja made this known on Thursday during a virtual analysis of the KTrade Securities research report.
He attributed restrictive fiscal policy to have contributed to decline of dollar value in the mid- and long-term in 2023.
“This includes a surge in the US fiscal deficit and depletion of surplus savings: the projection indicates slowdown in growth as business investment weakens, ultimately affecting the US economy,” he said.
This, according to him, is because direct and secondary sanctions implemented by the US administration increased the risks of holding assets or raising finance in dollars.
“The use of the US dollar as a tool to print money or control its reputation comes at the risk of the Global South.
“Its usage to implement sanctions has been the most damaging factor, as 28 per cent of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the world is under sanctions.
“This is big enough for these countries to start thinking about using their own currency,” he added.
He explained that People’s diminishing confidence in the prospective decline of the USD could go along with hiking gold prices.
On treasury bills, the chairman said the US Treasury’s funding of pandemic-related deficits contributed to the policy mix.
“T-bill issuance has increased by 125 per cent since 2019 and reserve balances are up by 118 per cent, and the Fed’s target rate is 125 per cent higher than in 2019.
“Therefore, interest payments on T-bills and reserve balances, together, are putting pressure on the US economy.
“This will prompt the Fed to ease its stance on monetary policy in the next couple of years,” he quoted the report as saying.
Khwaja further said that due to depreciation of dollar, emerging economies stood to benefit, while financial mechanisms and investments may shift towards longer-term bonds.
He restated the need for cautious market navigation, urging investors to consider alternative avenues and be vigilant of broader economic trends amid decline in dollar value. (NAN)
Edited by Abiemwense Moru
