New Delta scenarios show growing water challenges for the whole of the Netherlands

Four visions of the future

The delta scenarios include four future scenarios until 2050 and 2100: Warm, Steam, Quick and Spacious. All four are equally likely and all lead to greater challenges for water policy. Measures in the water system alone will not be sufficient. Spatial choices and solutions are also needed, such as making our living environment climate-proof and adapting water and land use.

Drier, but also wetter

One of the most urgent tasks is keeping freshwater available for social functions, such as agriculture, shipping, nature, drinking water, energy and industry. The supply of freshwater in the summer period decreases in all Delta scenarios. This is due to longer periods of drought and because more water evaporates due to higher temperatures. Shortages also arise because less water flows through the rivers in the summer and saltwater penetrates further into the country.

At the same time, the risk of flooding increases in all scenarios: in the summer due to peak rainfall and in the winter due to longer periods of precipitation. Extreme circumstances also coincide more often. A lot of rain in combination with high river discharges and higher sea levels hinder sufficient water drainage. The damage can be extensive in both urban and rural areas.

Balancing between two extremes

“Where the water boards used to be champions in draining water, we now have to become okay with retaining water,” responds Erik den Hertog, board member at the Union of Water Boards. “The new Delta scenarios show that there is an increasing balance between two extremes: drought and flooding. As water boards we can do a lot in this, but the situation is becoming increasingly challenging. We can’t do this alone. The water boards therefore believe that water should become leading in spatial planning, for example when choosing a location for housing or choosing certain crops in agriculture. Let the water boards have a seat at the table on spatial issues, so that we can live, work and recreate here together now and in the future.”

Greater chance of flooding

Action is now needed in all four Delta scenarios to protect us in a timely manner against wet feet. Sea levels rise and river discharges increase in winter. In addition, the consequences of a flood become greater because more people live behind the dikes and the economic value behind the dikes increases. The water boards therefore argue for a timely investment in the joint Flood Protection Program. The government and the 21 water boards are working together on dike improvements.

Jeroen Haan, water safety board member at the Union of Water Boards: “Living and working safely in our low-lying delta is no longer self-evident. No joint agreements have yet been made about the financial consequences for the larger water safety tasks after 2028. The water boards themselves are investing heavily and are also calling for a timely increase in the Delta Fund with a contribution from the government.”

About the Delta Scenarios

The Delta Scenarios are published every six years and are based on the latest insights from, among others, the KNMI, the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, the Central Planning Bureau, Wageningen University & Research and Deltares. The scenarios form starting points for water policy, the Delta Program and the implementing organizations. But they can also be applied elsewhere, for example in spatial policy (Spatial Policy Document) or National Rural Area Program (NPLG). The scenarios show where solutions are needed in the medium to long term for timely preparation and to work adaptively towards a safe and liveable Netherlands.

> View the digital brochure of the Delta Scenarios

> View the main report of the Delta scenarios