April 28, 2024 by one of our editors
Bld. AIVD
For the security of the Netherlands, the AIVD will have to investigate not only many but often urgent threats in 2023. The grim picture that the AIVD painted last year has in many ways become worse. The AIVD states this in its 2023 annual report.
National threats are increasingly linked to international developments. There are two major conflicts, numerous terrorist attack plots have been foiled in the Netherlands and abroad, and the Netherlands is a daily target of cyber attacks to spy and exploit economic benefits.
The biggest war in Europe since the Second World War is still raging on the borders of NATO territory. A war in which Russia uses nuclear rhetoric. And the Russian position against the West has only hardened in the past year. The conflict in Gaza was added in 2023. A conflict that, if further escalated, could destabilize the Middle East and have a major impact on world security.
| Russia In 2023, Russia continuously tried to portray Western countries in a bad light, undermine mutual unity and influence the atmosphere in societies. Russia did this openly and secretly. In doing so, it responded to social insecurities, pro-Russian or anti-Western sentiments that existed in Western societies. For example, in 2023, demonstrations in which Russia had a hand took place in various Western countries, including in the Netherlands. Participants were paid to take to the streets with pre-fabricated slogans. The demonstrations were mainly intended to give Russians (and sympathizers) the idea that there is a lot of criticism in the West about military support to Ukraine. Russia also tried to stir up war fatigue in the West and reduce support for Ukraine. The country emphasizes that this support (and the sanctions against Russia) costs Western citizens money. |
Gray zone between war and peace becomes a battleground
The situation is partly so precarious because the balance of power that existed in the world for a long time has become out of balance. Many countries try to strengthen their position at the expense of other countries. That is not an armed struggle. But there is conflict. And it affects the Netherlands and its interests. Countries wage that conflict by carrying out cyber attacks in search of economic advantage. By spying here, or interfering in our affairs. Sometimes with great brutality. For example, Russia tried to influence our public debate in 2023 and had a hand in demonstrations in the Netherlands against Western support for Ukraine.
Extra efforts on China necessary
China is affecting the earning capacity of Dutch businesses through cyber attacks, use of espionage, insiders, secret investments and illegal exports. It is not without reason that discovering and preventing this is one of the AIVD’s priorities in 2023. These actions do not stand alone. These are means to an end for China. That goal is to be one of the leading world powers. China is now actually able to shape global relations to its will. The consequences of this for the Netherlands could be far-reaching. The AIVD will therefore have to intensify its investigation into threats from China.
| The Chinese whole-of-society approach The Chinese authorities’ own national security is central to the choices they make. When Xi Jinping began his third term as General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in November 2022, he announced that national security would be of paramount importance. This was immediately reflected in new laws in 2023. These gave the Party-state even greater control over society and had immediate consequences inside and outside China. This includes the new counter-espionage law and the foreign relations law. The data protection law, which had already come into effect earlier, also fits into this list. The counter-intelligence law obliges all Chinese, including those outside China, to contribute to the country’s security. The Chinese authorities can appeal to every part of society. Not only on China’s enormous intelligence apparatus, but also on students, scientists, companies or interest groups active in the Netherlands. This is called the whole-of-society approach. The law also gives the government the right to take action against threats outside its own territory. This could cause the Chinese government to interfere with people in the Netherlands who have a Chinese background. They may also be forced or asked to gather information for the authorities. |
Threat of jihadism is increasing
Within the Netherlands, the main terrorist threat from global jihadism increased. Although the number of attacks carried out by jihadists in Europe has decreased since 2017, the AIVD has warned every year that a trigger event could cause a revival of the jihadist movement and an increase in the threat.
Exactly that happened in 2023. There were even two mobilizing issues: Koran destruction in the Netherlands and other European countries and the conflict between Israel and Hamas. Both can be reasons for jihadists and other radical Muslims to use violence here. ISIS and Al Qaeda tried to respond to this with repeated calls for supporters to carry out attacks in the West. Western intelligence and security services, including the AIVD, discovered and foiled at least a dozen attack plans in Europe. In four cases, people were arrested and threats removed in the Netherlands following an official message from the AIVD.
| IS Khorasan Province In early 2023, a network with ties to ISKP (the group that claimed 137 victims in Moscow) made plans to attack the Dutch consulate in Istanbul. That plan has been foiled. In the same period, the AIVD, together with European partner services, investigated a network connected to ISKP in the Netherlands, Belgium and Germany. The members had come to Europe in the flow of refugees from Ukraine. In July, twelve members of the network were arrested, two of them in the Netherlands: a man from Tajikistan and the woman from Kyrgyzstan. |
Extremist positions are hardening from right to left
We also saw polarization and unrest in society. The conflict in Gaza is, so soon after corona, yet another topic on which people are diametrically opposed to each other. The social debate about this is not the field of activity of the AIVD. But this polarization also affects extremist and terrorist movements in the Netherlands. The conflict in Gaza in 2023 will lead to a hardening of extremist positions. And sometimes, as with jihadism, this contributed to concrete or conceivable threats. Controversial and predominantly anti-Semitic statements by extremist leaders also contributed to fear among the Jewish community in the Netherlands.
| Variants of anti-Semitism Many right-wing extremists believe that Israel has no right to exist and see Hamas as a freedom movement. A second narrative is that the conflict did not start with the Hamas attacks on October 7, but that in fact everything was organized or permitted by the United States and Israel. |
Anti-institutional extremists withdraw into their own parallel societies
The AIVD further notes that anti-institutional extremists have increasingly turned their backs to society in 2023. Municipalities, the tax authorities, the police and the judiciary struggled with how to deal with people who believe that laws and rules do not apply to them. The brochure about the sovereign movement in the Netherlands, published in April 2024, should help the government deal better with the group. Where necessary, with nuance. Where necessary with urgency. A small subgroup of anti-institutional extremists is receiving particular attention from the agency. This group is preparing to use violence against the Dutch government and institutions – what they see as the ‘evil elite’.
Tackling criminal networks is a matter of national security
The AIVD sees criminal undermining as a problem for national security. Protecting this is a task of the AIVD. In 2023, the service investigated criminal networks that threaten the democratic legal order with extreme violence, infiltration and corruption. The research must help ensure that judges, journalists, administrators and MPs can do their work freely and safely.
| Crime as a threat to national security In recent years, some criminal networks have used ruthless violence in public spaces. Not only to deal with criminal rivals, but if it served their interests they also committed attacks on editors, journalists and lawyers. A large number of public prosecutors, judges, MPs and administrators are currently being protected. The targeting of people in such professions threatens national security. Because a constitutional state is not possible without free and safe justice, journalism, criminal enforcement and public administration. |
Increase resilience
In recent years we have seen a significant threat from various countries to our economic security. We see this in vital sectors such as the maritime and financial sectors. The AIVD has therefore invested in the topics of knowledge security, economic security and the protection of vital interests in 2023. For example, the AIVD further contributed to the Knowledge Safety Desk last year. In 2023, the AIVD was also involved in the establishment of the Economic Security Entrepreneurs Desk, which is the government point of contact for knowledge-intensive small and medium-sized businesses that have questions about economic security.
More info:
AIVD annual report 2023
