Follow along as theScore’s Justin Boone provides instant breakdowns of every fantasy-relevant selection in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft.
Caleb Williams, QB, Bears (1st)
Fantasy potential: ★★★★★
2024 projection (17 starts): 3,849 passing yards, 21 TDs, 11 INTs
323 rushing yards, 3 TDs, 6 FUMs
Thanks to a forward-thinking trade with the Panthers last year, the Bears were able to secure the No. 1 pick and hopefully a true franchise quarterback in Williams.
While first-round QBs are far from a sure thing, Williams is an elite prospect who has an extremely high ceiling if he can live up to the hype. And unlike most rookie passers, the 22-year-old joins a Bears offense that has enough firepower for him to succeed immediately.
The presence of DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze (spoiler), Cole Kmet, and D’Andre Swift will ease Williams’ burden in Year 1.
His immediate fantasy impact could be similar to what CJ Stroud did for the Texans in 2023: Finishing as a low-end QB1 despite the lack of big-time rushing production.
Redraft ranking: QB14
Dynasty startup value (Superflex): Late 1st round pick
Dynasty rookie value (Superflex): 1.01
Fantasy stock up: DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, D’Andre Swift
Fantasy stock down: None
Jayden Daniels, QB, Commanders (2nd)
Fantasy potential: ★★★★★
2024 projection (15 starts): 3,023 passing yards, 16 TDs, 13 INTs
719 rushing yards, 6 TDs, 9 FUMs
After flirting with several quarterback prospects in recent weeks, the Commanders finally made their decision to select Daniels second overall.
The 23-year-old is coming off a monster season at LSU where he threw for 3,812 yards and 40 touchdowns while rushing for another 1,134 yards and 10 scores on the ground.
Washington may not have the same dynamic pass-catching duo as Daniels enjoyed in his last college campaign, but his rushing skills alone will make him an instant fantasy option.
If he can acclimate quickly into offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury’s system, Daniels’ passing accuracy (especially downfield) will put defenses into a bind as they try to game plan against his dangerous dual-threat ability.
Redraft ranking: QB16
Dynasty startup value (Superflex): : 2nd round pick
Dynasty rookie value (Superflex): 1.02-1.04
Fantasy stock up: Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, Zach Ertz
Fantasy stock down: None
Drake Maye, QB, Patriots (3rd)
Fantasy potential: ★★★★☆
2024 projection (17 starts): 3,437 passing yards, 15 TDs, 14 INTs
406 rushing yards, 3 TDs, 7 FUMs
The Patriots were reportedly open to trading down, but in the end held onto the third pick to invest their future in Maye.
Unfortunately for Maye, he lands in one of the worst spots for a fantasy QB, since New England currently lacks high-end pass-catching weapons.
The 21-year-old’s also a prospect who needs to continue his development if he’s going to emerge as a strong NFL starter. He’ll have to hope his natural playmaking ability will help him get by until he gets comfortable in the pros.
Though Maye is an intriguing fantasy player, don’t expect to see significant production from him right away. He’s best viewed as a dynasty asset.
Redraft ranking: QB25
Dynasty startup value (Superflex): 4th round pick
Dynasty rookie value (Superflex): 1.05-1.08
Fantasy stock up: Demario Douglas, Kendrick Bourne, Hunter Henry, Rhamondre Stevenson, Antonio Gibson
Fantasy stock down: Drake Maye, Jacoby Brissett
Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Cardinals (4th)
Fantasy potential: ★★★★★
2024 projection: 81 receptions, 1,127 receiving yards, 6 TDs
The Cardinals were fortunate the three teams ahead of them needed quarterbacks because it allowed Harrison Jr. to fall into their hands.
Receiver also happened to be one of Arizona’s biggest needs and now they have an elite prospect with a Hall of Fame father in his corner.
Harrison Jr. was a prolific collegiate wideout who managed to produce with different quarterbacks under center during his time at Ohio State.
His talent, production profile, pedigree, and draft capital all point toward him becoming a superstar. Landing in Arizona also provides him with incredible volume, which should make him a fantasy WR2 as a rookie.
Don’t be surprised when he’s mentioned alongside Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, and CeeDee Lamb in the coming years.
Redraft ranking: WR24
Dynasty startup value (Superflex): 2nd round pick
Dynasty rookie value (Superflex): 1.02-1.04
Fantasy stock up: Kyler Murray
Fantasy stock down: Trey McBride
Malik Nabers, WR, Giants (6th)
Fantasy potential: ★★★★★
2024 projection: 84 receptions, 1,109 receiving yards, 5 TDs
In most drafts, Nabers would have been the first receiver off the board; some teams apparently had him ranked higher than Harrison Jr.
Clearly the Giants weren’t one of them.
The bad news for Nabers is he won’t have as good a quarterback as MHJ during their rookie campaigns. However, Nabers should see plenty of volume to help offset that – especially if Darren Waller retires.
New York’s been stockpiling mediocre receivers for the last few years, but now they have a potential superstar.
Nabers, who’ll turn 21 in July, has game-breaking speed, outstanding quickness, and as high a ceiling as any player at his position.
Much like Harrison Jr., Nabers should challenge for top-24 fantasy receivers stats in Year 1 and could be mentioned among the NFL’s best wideouts within a couple of years.
Redraft ranking: WR28
Dynasty startup value (Superflex): 3rd-round pick
Dynasty rookie value (Superflex): 1.03-1.05
Fantasy stock up: Daniel Jones
Fantasy stock down: Darius Slayton, Wan’Dale Robinson
Michael Penix Jr., QB, Falcons (8th)
Fantasy potential: ★★★☆☆
2024 projection (0 starts): Backup to Kirk Cousins
In the first surprise of the opening round, the Falcons draft a rookie QB who’ll sit behind Kirk Cousins for the foreseeable future.
Cousins will be 36 in August, but he just signed a four-year deal with Atlanta. Penix Jr., meanwhile, saw his name gain a lot of steam in recent weeks, and he’s an older prospect who’ll turn 24 in May.
Now he’ll play the role Jordan Love did in Green Bay, learning behind a veteran until he’s ready to take over.
This could lead to an excellent succession plan for the Falcons, as we’ve seen with Love, but it’s a curious move for a team that appeared ready to contend this year.
It also makes Penix Jr. a tough player to value, since we don’t know when he’ll see the field. While he may sneak into the late first round of dynasty rookie drafts based on this draft capital, he projects more as second-round value in my eyes due to the delayed production.
Redraft ranking: QB33
Dynasty startup value (Superflex): 9th round pick
Dynasty rookie value (Superflex): 1.10-2.04
Fantasy stock up: None
Fantasy stock down: None
Rome Odunze, WR, Bears (9th)
Fantasy potential: ★★★★☆
2024 projection: 62 receptions, 837 receiving yards, 3 TDs
The Bears continue to build up their offense, giving new quarterback Caleb Williams another pass-catcher in Odunze.
While Odunze may not be on the same level as the two wideouts drafted ahead of him, he isn’t far off. The only problem will be the target competition in Chicago, as DJ Moore and Keenan Allen are both volume hogs.
For Odunze to truly break out as a rookie, it may require an injury to one of his veteran teammates.
However, even if that doesn’t happen, Odunze should be able to produce as a WR4/flex and eventually turn into one of Williams’ favorite weapons down the road.
Redraft ranking: WR42
Dynasty startup value (Superflex): 4th round pick
Dynasty rookie value (Superflex): 1.05-1.08
Fantasy stock up: Caleb Williams
Fantasy stock down: Cole Kmet, Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze (short term)
JJ McCarthy, QB, Vikings (10th)
Fantasy potential: ★★★★☆
2024 projection (17 starts): 3,686 passing yards, 18 TDs, 12 INTs
174 rushing yards, 1 TD, 7 FUMs
The Vikings resisted the temptation to make a big move up the board. And by waiting, they saved themselves a ton of draft capital, only moving up one spot in the end to secure the QB they wanted in McCarthy.
The 21-year-old immediately becomes the Vikings’ replacement for Cousins and finds himself in an excellent fantasy-production environment.
With Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Aaron Jones, TJ Hockenson (when healthy), a good offensive line, and Kevin O’Connell calling plays, McCarthy will be dropped into one of the best situations of any QB in this class.
Given their landing spots, McCarthy has a better chance to find success earlier on than Drake Maye, who was drafted seven spots before him.
If McCarthy can capture some of the magic Cousins had in Minnesota’s offense, it’s possible he’s a top-20 fantasy QB as a rookie – with plenty of room to grow.
Redraft ranking: QB24
Dynasty startup value (Superflex): 4th round pick
Dynasty rookie value (Superflex): 1.05-1.08
Fantasy stock up: JJ McCarthy, Justin Jefferson, Aaron Jones, Jordan Addison, TJ Hockenson
Fantasy stock down: Sam Darnold
Bo Nix, QB, Broncos (12th)
Fantasy potential: ★★★☆☆
2024 projection (17 starts): 3,048 passing yards, 15 TDs, 16 INTs
219 rushing yards, 7 FUMs
With five quarterbacks already taken, the Broncos weren’t willing to risk leaving the draft without a potential starter, which led to overpaying for Nix.
The 24-year-old has loads of experience, but his numbers and performance might have been improved by a favorable system at Oregon.
Whether he can find similar success under Sean Payton in Denver will be one of the most interesting storylines to watch in 2024 – and one that won’t likely end well for the Broncos.
While you needn’t worry about Nix in normal redraft leagues, he does have value as a late first-round dynasty rookie selection. But don’t get your hopes up.
Redraft ranking: QB30
Dynasty startup value (Superflex): 8th round pick
Dynasty rookie value (Superflex): 1.09-2.01
Fantasy stock up: Bo Nix
Fantasy stock down: Zach Wilson, Jarrett Stidham
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theScores Justin Boone was first overall in FantasyPros’ Most Accurate Expert Competition in 2019 and finished among the top seven each of his last seven years in the contest.
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