Spot Bitcoin ETF trading in Hong Kong, which begins tomorrow, will further strengthen long-term bullish sentiment.
The Bitcoin (BTC) price opened the last week of April, the halving month, on a bearish note. This was after closing the last four weeks in a correction mode. The largest crypto is poised to end its first month on a bearish note for the first time since August 2023. With less than 48 hours to go until May 2024, the Bitcoin price is more likely to remain in an erratic trend.
Moreover, more crypto traders have taken a step back in anticipation of important news from the United States.
Next Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve will release much-anticipated data on interest rates and the FOMC statement.
The cryptocurrency industry is expected to register increased volatility as the market absorbs US inflation data. Moreover, it is not yet clear when the Federal Reserve will implement its expected interest rate cuts later this year.
Has the top of the Bitcoin cycle already been achieved?
After reaching its all-time high (ATH) of around $74k last month, the Bitcoin price has been stuck in a correction mode until now. According to experienced trader Peter Brandt, the Bitcoin price is on the rise. This is through an exponential decline, based on diminishing returns.
After analyzing historical data, Brandt argued that the exponential decline suggests that BTC has already reached its cycle peak of just over $70,000.
Nevertheless, Brandt indicated that the exponential decline has only a 25 percent chance of being successful. Furthermore, the Bitcoin price is influenced by a wide range of other factors. These include the continued mainstream adoption of digital assets and web3 protocols.
As is known, spot Bitcoin ETF trading in Hong Kong will begin on April 30. The introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs in Hong Kong will add to existing buying pressure from US fund managers.
As a result, Brandt noted that he believes the Bitcoin price has a high chance of rising above $100k in the coming months.
A similar position was taken by Giovanni Santostasi, a popular Bitcoin trader and investor with a Ph.D. in Astrophysics. According to Giovanni, the Bitcoin price will rise so high to a value of $210k. This will be towards the end of 2025. Then the Bitcoin price will drop as low as it reaches a value of $83k. Remarkably, Giovanni’s prediction involved several scientific methods. This was fueled by data from the past few bull cycles following each Bitcoin halving.
What is the next step?
As the Bitcoin price continues to fall, a week after the fourth halving, short-term investors have diversified into the altcoin industry. The ETH/BTC pair, which is a popular indicator of the macro crypto cash ratio, has announced an altseason. Meanwhile, popular crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen has called on investors to remain vigilant of a possible crash for altcoins in the coming months ahead of the impending rebound.
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