The former NATO boss is not sure who will succeed Stoltenberg. ‘That depends on the decision-making process in Brussels.’ Yet De Hoop Scheffer thinks that the choice will ultimately fall on Rutte. The Americans, French, Germans and British have already expressed their preference for Rutte. ‘And I think there is little chance that they will back down.’ Moreover, more allies are likely to agree to Rutte’s nomination, partly thanks to the support of the United States. ‘But ultimately there must be consensus among all 32 member states.’ Until this happens, the new Secretary General will not be elected. ‘It ain’t over till the fat lady singssays De Hoop Scheffer.
Rutte travels a bit
Last week, Rutte visited Chinese President Xi Jinping and next week he will travel to Lithuania. “These trips have their own substantive purpose, and ASML was undoubtedly discussed in China,” says De Hoop Scheffer. “But the Chinese are not stupid,” De Hoop Scheffer emphasizes. ‘Xi also knows very well that he may become the new secretary general. In that context, he must have asked Rutte a number of specific things.’
Also read | Rutte calls on China to put pressure on Russia
In Lithuania he visits the Dutch soldiers who participate in the NATO force, ‘but he is not going there to get the country behind him for the candidacy’. The former NATO boss only sees these trips as ‘necessary’ for Rutte as outgoing prime minister.
‘Extremely suitable candidate’
According to De Hoop Scheffer, there is no doubt that Rutte is an extremely suitable candidate. ‘He knows everyone in the world, and the whole world knows him. He has built up a lot of authority internationally; that will serve him well.’ Moreover, his extensive experience makes him ‘the good candidate’ to lead NATO.
De Hoop Scheffer cannot name any of Rutte’s pitfalls. According to him, the outgoing Prime Minister has proven that he can hold things together politically ‘like no other’. In addition, De Hoop Scheffer thinks that the politician will still be missed in the Netherlands. ‘I actually dare to predict that. There will soon have to be a prime minister who will have to start all over again.’
One opposing candidate
In addition to Rutte, Romanian President Iohannis recently also put himself forward as a candidate for the position of Secretary General. But De Hoop Scheffer thinks that the Romanians are ‘looking for something else’ with this candidacy. A number of posts within the European Union will be filled in the near future. ‘I think the Romanians are also looking at this with a slanted eye.’
Above all, the former diplomat finds it ‘remarkable’ that the country is making this nomination. ‘At the moment the ‘deputy secretary’ is a Romanian. It would therefore be strange to suddenly go for the number one position. I think there are other motives.’
The Dutch interest
Although Rutte is from the Netherlands, he cannot fulfill a special role for his home country at NATO. ‘Some media sometimes portray it that way, but that is nonsense. If he were to do that, he would lose his authority.’ In that case, other NATO countries would rebel against this, De Hoop Scheffer emphasizes. ‘If Rutte were to represent Dutch interests, he would not fulfill his position.’
‘You play in the premier league where the world leaders are concerned’
But according to the former NATO boss, there is no doubt it would be a ‘prestigious appointment’. ‘In that respect, it is good that there is a Dutchman in that post again. You play in the premier league where the world leaders are concerned.’
Rutte’s biggest challenges
According to De Hoop Scheffer, Rutte’s biggest challenge lies in his position. ‘He must ensure that he keeps all 32 member states of the political-military alliance together. And I speak from my own experience when I say that it is not easy.’ But according to him, that is ‘not easy at all’ in the current situation. ‘A fierce war is raging on the European continent and Putin’s geographical ambition has not been satisfied with Ukraine.’
Also read | Putin warns: ‘We will destroy F-16s’
With the American elections on the horizon, it is also possible that former President Donald Trump will be re-elected. ‘And he views NATO differently. We don’t know exactly how, but he demands a return from NATO countries for American protection.’ Rutte will therefore also have the challenge of convincing all 32 countries to spend more money on defense. “He has a huge agenda,” said De Hoop Scheffer.
Future perspective
The last 75 years of the alliance are over, ‘and I assume that NATO will reach the next anniversary’. If Rutte becomes the new Secretary General, he has one important message to convey to the new generation, according to De Hoop Scheffer: ‘We have taken peace and stability for granted for a long time’. The time has now come when the former Secretary General is wondering whether this will continue.
‘Europe has gone on a geopolitical holiday’
‘When the Berlin Wall fell and the Cold War ended, Europe went on a geopolitical holiday. The Americans would take care of our security, the Russians would take care of our energy and the Chinese would take care of the rest, so to speak.’ According to De Hoop Scheffer, NATO has returned to its core task, ‘namely defending the territorial integrity of NATO territory’.
Also read | ‘Putin is simply no match for a united Europe’
The young generation must realize that we are indeed living in different and dangerous times. “That means that not only does more money need to go to defense, but we also have to be alert and vigilant.” According to the former NATO boss, it was always assumed that each new generation would be better off than the previous one. ‘I now see a turning point there. Of course I hope not, but it is more realistic to tell the truth,” he says. According to De Hoop Scheffer, we all see ourselves living in the ideal world, ‘but unfortunately it is not like that’.
