Is the end of the Erdogan era in sight? Your questions answered | Abroad

Do the results of the local elections have consequences for national politics? And if so: which one?

“Yes, because the cards have now been shuffled again. For example, President Erdogan’s AKP is now no longer the largest party in the country. Since Sunday it has been the current opposition party CHP. In addition, due to the rise of the ultra-conservative YRP, there is now a new third party in Turkey.”

“Erdogan and his government could come under pressure until the 2028 national elections. The CHP mayors of Istanbul and Ankara are proving to be as popular as ever, putting them in the picture as possible presidential candidates. And the YRP has shown that it is possible to steal votes from the AKP.”

“The most important practical effect of these elections is that Erdogan seems convinced that tackling sky-high inflation must be a priority. The voters have made it clear that they have now really had enough. Erdogan therefore promised immediately after the results were announced to remain faithful to the course taken by his Minister of Finance. Even if this means that the belt has to be tightened (again).”

What consequences will the result have for international politics?

“Not much, because this election was mainly about local issues. However, Erdogan and his AKP have been affected by the war in Gaza. The president stands firmly behind the Palestinians on this issue, but in the meantime trade with Israel continues as usual. YRP put its finger on the sore spot during the campaign, and that was appreciated by dissatisfied AKP voters.”

“Furthermore, the Turkish opposition wants to communicate the message that last Sunday’s result can be a starting point for other countries where the population is suffering under an authoritarian regime. “The breakdown of democracy ends here,” said the re-elected mayor of Istanbul, Ekrem Imamoglu.”

What are the positions of the CHP? What are the differences with Erdogan’s party?

“That is very difficult to say, because in local elections positions can differ per province, per city and per municipality. In Istanbul, the campaign was mainly about what has been achieved in the past five years, despite Erdogan and his AKP CHP Mayor Imamoglu.”

“In general terms, the opposition in recent years at local level has mainly insisted on opening up business, an end to cronyism and more space for greenery and recreation.”

“Erdogan’s AKP mainly focused on experience this year. That party has become great by getting things in order at the local level. For real services you have to be with the AKP, as could be read on many election posters.”

Would Turks abroad be allowed to vote again, such as in the presidential elections?

Does this result now also lead to different policies at local level, because key positions in the government are no longer occupied by people from Erdogan’s AKP? Or will other local policies become difficult because the national government and Erdogan remain in place?

“That remains to be seen, of course. But many opposition parties, whether it is the CHP, the YRP or the right-wing nationalist IYI party, have opposed the AKP. As administrators, they will undoubtedly want to do things differently than their predecessors. .”

“That will not always be easy. In some cities and districts, a party like the CHP has not been in power for almost fifty years. And dismantling something somewhere does not mean that it can be rebuilt in the same way. Let alone that it automatically gets better.”

“In places like Istanbul and Ankara, things are different. There, CHP mayors have not only been re-elected, they now also have a majority in the municipal council. This means that they can work more effectively and possibly achieve more successes. reflects on the reputation of the CHP at a national level.”

“Erdogan and his government may decide to thwart CHP leaders (or other opposition figures). That has happened mainly in Istanbul over the past five years. But that may now be counterproductive.”

Is the end of the Erdogan era in sight?

“Not for the time being. Erdogan and his government will in any case remain in office until the next elections in 2028. There is also no reason to assume that he will resign after Sunday’s result. If only because there is no logical successor is ready.”

“But the end is certainly in sight. During the last campaign, Erdogan reiterated that the local elections were his last and that he will hand over the baton in 2028. That will have to be the case, because in Turkey a president is allowed a maximum of two terms of receive five years. Erdogan is already in his third term, but he and his party say that the counter was reset in 2018, when a presidential system was introduced in Turkey.”

“But Erdogan also said that under the current rules he can no longer be a candidate. In doing so, he left room for a possible constitutional amendment that should make a re-election possible. Although such an attempt does not seem very likely. Finally, parliament can decide to to hold elections. Then Erdogan could also make a bid for the presidency again. But that seems at least as unlikely in the short term as a constitutional amendment.”

“In any case, the image of the ‘invincible’ Erdogan has suffered a dent. His AKP has seemed vulnerable for some time. But whether the end of the Erdogan era is really in sight depends mainly on which possible successors there are within their own ranks are surfacing. There are not many of them yet.”

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