Just as the German and Allied armies bombed each other’s coal mines in World War II, today Russia and Ukraine are targeting all forms of each other’s energy infrastructure.
Attacks on hydroelectric power stations in the Dnieper, fighting around and near the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant, Russian drone attacks on Ukraine’s electricity grid, the mysteriously blown up gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea in September 2022: no stone remains unturned.
Ukrainian drone attacks last month on oil refineries and oil depots deep into Russian territory also fit into this picture. However, to Kyiv’s astonishment, the Americans asked them to stop this, the government revealed Financial Times.
The US fears that Russian retaliation will hit Western oil interests. But above all, the White House is concerned about the oil price. “Nothing scares a sitting American president more than higher prices at the pump in an election year,” he said. FT a former presidential energy advisor.
There are serious lessons for Europeans in these oil skirmishes between Moscow, Kyiv and Washington.
First of all, it is important not to fall asleep again when it comes to energy security. In 2022, with the Russian invasion, the EU was woken up. Gas dependence on Moscow turned out to be a serious strategic weakness, which Berlin and The Hague also had to acknowledge. Emergency measures absorbed the gas shock – LNG imports from the US and Qatar, energy subsidies for households and companies, mandatory gas storage. For a short time, there was a mood of ‘war economics’ regarding energy among European politicians and policymakers.
That was a major change in mentality. For decades, Europe relied on the market for security of supply and the export of EU market rules to neighbors and energy partners. Russia’s Gazprom was also considered a normal energy company, which was requested to be split by Brussels competition lawyers.
The war made it clear at once that the market, even if it is well regulated, cannot do it alone. The state must intervene to protect infrastructure and secure energy imports. This means that ‘energy diplomacy’ is once again part of every foreign policy and security strategy, according to a study published last week by the Brussels Institute for Geopolitics (which I co-wrote). Energy is raison d’état.
The Russian war in Ukraine is one of three developments that underline the urgency of a strategic look at energy. The green transition is the second. What is beneficial is how this reduces the need for fossil imports from, for example, the Middle East. Sustainable energy can be generated at home. The sun is also shining in Europe, the wind is blowing hard.
At the same time, the transition to sustainable energy brings new dependencies, such as for the production of batteries, wind turbines and solar panels. China in particular has a strong position in these value chains. The EU is working on a response, mines are opening in Portugal, Sweden, France and Poland, but it all takes a lot of time.
Third, the US, itself engaged in a green technology race with China, is an industrial competitor for Europe. After 2010, the shale revolution made the US a major exporter of oil and gas again. Energy prices in Europe are today three to five times higher than in America (even now that they have fallen back to pre-2022 levels). This is disastrous for our energy-intensive industry. European companies are considering leaving. Add to that the massive subsidies that Bidens Inflation Reduction Act to greening production.
Europe last had geographical luck with energy in the age of coal. Since the world runs on oil, energy has been our strategic Achilles heel. Today, the 27 EU member states obtain more than half of their total energy needs from abroad. Green energy can reduce this, but without imports it will not work in the future.
In the global battle for fossil and green energy sources, European countries must maintain the focus and decisiveness from the gas crisis of 2022-23. Looking for new energy partners with diplomacy. With stronger protection of energy infrastructure, near and far. And with decision-making that is capable of strategic choices.
Because whatever you think of America’s rebuke of Ukraine’s oil depot attacks, they can do something clever in Washington: bringing together information from very diverse departments and sources – war prospects on the battlefield, the mood of the Kremlin, global oil market movements, election polls – in one risk analysis. And then a decision, a course. It is extremely urgent for Europe to develop such strategic ingenuity and strength.
Luuk van Middelaar is a political philosopher and historian.
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