Several analysts claim that the April halving is not the only reason why Bitcoin can achieve fantastic returns this year. Next month, the miners’ daily production will halve from 900 to 450 Bitcoin per day. But according to Lyn Alden, that production decline pales in comparison to the daily inflows that the Spot Bitcoin ETFs are allowed to record.
“In fact, the inflows or outflows could easily exceed that halving by 10x,” says Lyn Alden.
It’s about the demand for Bitcoin
According to Alden, it is currently the gigantic demand for Bitcoin that dominates the market. This does not alter the fact that the halving will ensure that ~11 billion dollars worth of Bitcoin is removed from production every year.
So you cannot say that it has no effect at all.
According to Lyn Alden, global liquidity is perhaps the most important factor determining the Bitcoin price. To prove this, she shows the growth of the global money supply (M2) versus the development of the Bitcoin price.
“So I think the halving is important, but it is only one factor among many that determine the start and duration of a bull market. The different ways to measure global liquidity, HODL waves and other catalysts together play a bigger role than the halving,” says Lyn Alden.
10x Research CEO and lead analyst Markus Thielen says Bitcoin’s current rally is “indisputably equivalent” to that of the 2020-2021 bull market, which initially peaked in April 2021.
Every Bitcoin correction is bought up
“The moment Bitcoin made a new high at $68,300, we saw a wave of selling, but every attempt to push the price down was met by a gigantic buying wave,” Thielen continues.
Every time Bitcoin started a breakout in February 2013, February 2017 and November 2020, the price grew by an average of 189 percent after 180 days. Ultimately, Bitcoin would reach its peak 9 to 11 months later after those outbreaks, Thielen concludes his story.
The special thing about the current bull market is that Bitcoin managed to record an all-time high before the halving for the first time in history, notes eToro analyst Simon Peters. The main reason for this is of course the American Spot Bitcoin ETFs, which provide billions of dollars in new capital.
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