SSince the baby boom, we know one thing almost for certain: there will come a time when the majority of these babies will be old. The aging of the population is therefore a phenomenon that we have seen coming for a long time, but have nevertheless allowed it to take its course. Recently, however, we have been reading more and more about the sustainability of our healthcare and the affordability of pensions. The aging population is a terrible obstacle. Or at least, that impression is given by the ominous future images and figures.
For example, the Central Bureau of Statistics distributes figures about the so-called ‘grey pressure’. This figure provides insight into the ratio of the elderly to the working part of the population. The higher that figure, the greater the pressure from the number of non-working pensioners on the number of workers. You would think this would be a useful way to represent the effects of an aging population.
About the author
Bernice Franssen is a policy advisor at Reable Nederland and founder of Mantelzorg&Jij. In the month of May she is a guest columnist on volkkrant.nl/opinie.
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However, to calculate this ‘grey pressure’, Statistics Netherlands looks at the number of people over 65 (the assumed retirees) compared to the 20-65 year olds (the working people). This method of calculating the ‘grey pressure’ leaves much to be desired. Not only is the number of people over 65 increasing with the aging population, the average retirement age is also increasing. Intuitively, the latter is also correct. I now know several vital and independent elderly people who still work. Too often it is about an exaggeration of the increasing ‘grey pressure’ and not enough about the reality: we are increasingly gray and busy.
The statement ’60 is the new 50′ did not come out of the blue. In the streets I increasingly see cheerful people in their sixties, seventies and eighties. I wasn’t there, but I think this is a fundamentally different sensation than before. Not surprising, because improved hygiene, medicine and increased prosperity have contributed to an increase in life expectancy. And the average life expectancy without physical limitations has also increased in recent decades.
Figures from Statistics Netherlands show, for example, that in 2011 people lived to an average age of 70.5 without physical limitations. Ten years later, in 2021, an average of 73 years. Add a few healthy years of life in one decade. Amazing, right? Why do we talk about this so little? We don’t pay enough attention to these years of life gained in good health and the impact this has on the working population.
Because what does the increase in healthy life years mean for the working population? According to the Rivm report ‘Health and labor participation around the state pension age’, health is strongly related to labor participation among people over 60. In other words, the better the health, the greater the chance that someone will be in paid work. We live longer, we are healthier for longer and we work longer.
And the latter is not included in the calculation of the ‘grey pressure’. For decades, calculations have been based on the assumption that on average people will retire at the age of 65 (based on the state pension age). But that is incorrect. In the year 2000, on average, people retired at the age of 61 and in 2040 they will probably retire at the age of 68. The so-called doubling of the ‘grey pressure’ from the year 2000 to 2040 is therefore greatly exaggerated.
Yes, there is an increase in the number of people over 65, but we cannot and should not ignore the developments surrounding the effective retirement age. It is clear that we cannot remain in our comfort zone when it comes to the aging population. But paralyzing society with unrealistic forecasts is not a solution. Instead, let’s discuss how we as a society can help the undeniable potential of older people who can and do work to do so.
That is why I appeal to the government and employers. Scratch yourself. Make sure that elderly people who want to work do not suffer financially. Offer room for demotion – taking a step back at work – or for retraining. This way, older employees, even those who do physically demanding work, can last longer.
And do something about age discrimination during application processes. That a person in their sixties who applies for a job has almost half the chance of being hired than someone aged 35? That is really no longer possible in the light of the aging population.
