If there had been no war, there would now be presidential elections in Ukraine. The campaign would have been a fierce battle, as it is in Ukraine. In 2019, for example, he and his opponent, Petro Poroshenko, organized a debate at the Kiev football stadium. Then the newcomer won the battle with flying colors; the sitting president went into opposition.
But now that there is war, not a single polling station is open on the day of the planned presidential elections, March 31. It’s a day like any other. The constitution of Ukraine is crystal clear: there are no elections during martial law.
“Suppose the Russians shoot us massively with rockets on election day. Then the polling stations have to close. And if there is only a five percent turnout, who will accept such a result?” said Olga Aivazovska, chairman of Opora, the largest independent supervisor of elections in Ukraine. Her organization was founded after the Orange Revolution (2004), a popular uprising following massive election fraud by former president Viktor Yanukovych. “We realize better than anyone else the importance of free and fair elections,” she says.
Criticism from abroad
The lack of security is only one of the reasons for not organizing elections. Since the invasion, population registration has been in chaos. Six million Ukrainians – four million eligible voters – fled abroad. Millions were internally displaced.
Moreover, there are roughly a million military personnel who cannot possibly leave their positions to go to the polls. Large parts of the country are occupied, and the front is moving every day. “After the capture of Avdiivka, the Russian advance did not stop,” Aivazovska said. “We have lost a number of villages again recently.”
Last year, after it became clear that the parliamentary elections would not take place, criticism came from abroad. “Ukraine must organize free and fair elections,” said the Dutch President of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, Tiny Kox, in an interview with the Ukrainian newspaper Ukraine Pravda.
“How you do that is not up to us, but without elections a democracy cannot function.” A US senator, Republican Lindsey Graham, increased the pressure during a visit to Kiev. “There must be elections in 2024, even if your country is still under attack.”
The opposition also does not want elections
It prompted President Zelensky to publicly declare that he is not against elections in 2024. “That will cost billions. Let’s share those costs, and then let’s bear the risk together and send observers to the front line,” he said laconically.
According to Olga Aivazovska, American doubts about support for Ukraine play a role. “Within the Republican Party, a certain group is looking for arguments why Ukraine is no longer a democracy,” she thinks. “And this while the legitimacy of the president is enshrined in the constitution. There is no doubt about that.”
Even among the Ukrainian opposition there is no support for a vote. Elections would be to their disadvantage, says Maria Ionova, parliamentarian of the largest opposition party, European Solidarity. “There is no level playing field for political competition.”
Since the invasion, most major TV channels have been broadcasting a national television marathon. Government spokespersons are given a lot of space and little criticism. There would also be a lack of independent observers. “If, like now, civilians are being killed and children are dying every day, would even one foreign observer go to work?” the opponent asks rhetorically.
‘Unity is our most important weapon’
She calls it “painful” that there is discussion about the Ukrainian elections – while in Russia no serious rivals of President Vladimir Putin could stand as candidates for the March 17 elections. Opposition member Alexei Navalny was even killed. “The Russian elections also took place in the illegally occupied territories of Ukraine,” adds Maria Ionova. She calls on Europe not to recognize Putin as president.
When people die at the front, you don’t want to criticize each other. An election campaign means the end of unity
Stopping the political campaign in Ukraine is also an ethical issue, Ionova added. “When people die at the front, you don’t want to criticize each other. Unity is our most important weapon. An election campaign means the end of unity.”
Yet that unity is not always the case. For example, the leader of her party, former President Petro Poroshenko, was stopped at the border in December when he said he wanted to gather support for Ukraine in Europe and America. He called the event “an attack on unity.”
The first war period
Other parliamentarians from his party were also denied a visit to the US, including Maria Ionova, and Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze, who even spoke of “an attack on democracy, the balance of power and the rule of law”. “The government must change its attitude towards opposition. This is not how a democracy should function,” Ionova agrees.
The government is being watched, Olga Aivazovska emphasizes. “Democracy is not just about elections. It is about the influence that society exerts on power.” For example, in a new legal text on lobbying – a condition for EU membership – politicians recently wanted to create obstacles to the activities of NGOs such as Opora, which, after all, lobby for reforms. After pressure from activists, the text of the law was amended.
Parliament also wanted to suspend the obligation for politicians to declare property, just as in the first period of the war. After collecting one hundred thousand signatures, that demand was dropped. “Ukrainians are currently dying to decide their own country. They will never accept an authoritarian regime,” the election observer concludes.
