Is there a threat of a new escalation in the Middle East after the airstrike on the Iranian consulate in Syria?

There are two ways to look at Monday’s Israeli attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus. One way involves higher geopolitics, a complex chess game of strategic and tactical moves, a mix of psychological and actual warfare. The other way to look at it is simpler.

In both cases, however, the same facts must be assumed. Thirteen people were killed in a rocket attack on the grounds of the Iranian embassy in the Syrian capital Damascus, according to the Iranian government. Among them were two senior commanders of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, General Mohammad Reza Zahedi and his deputy Mohammad Hadi Haji. Five other members of the Revolutionary Guard also did not survive the attack.

Zahedi and Haji had an important role in Iranian politics in the region. According to Israeli media, the airstrike eliminated the man who has led Revolutionary Guard actions in Syria and Lebanon for many years. He is said to have been the second in command of the Al Quds Brigade and also provided contacts in Syria with the Lebanese movement Hezbollah, Tehran’s main remotely controlled weapon in the confrontation with Israel.

Explosive

But Israel has managed to eliminate senior Iranian guards more often in the past. What makes Monday’s action more explosive than previous Israeli operations is that it was aimed at an Iranian diplomatic mission. It was not the embassy itself that was hit (and even completely destroyed), but the adjacent consulate, but still. Embassies and consulates have a protected status in international traffic, so you should stay away from them.

Tehran reacted angrily. President Ebrahim Raisi has announced counteractions. He spoke of a “terrorist air strike” and a gross violation of international rules. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei also said the attack would be avenged.

So is there now a threat of serious armed escalation between Iran and Israel? Probably not. The two countries have been bombarding each other with martial language for decades and sometimes real blows are exchanged, but never actually against each other. Iran usually lets its subcontractors in the region do the dirty work, such as Hezbollah and the Houthis, and Israel’s actions also take place in third countries, such as now again in Syria.

Iran in particular is not looking forward to a direct confrontation with Israel, because it knows that Israel is much stronger militarily (and has nuclear weapons). Moreover, Tehran knows that war with Israel also means war with the United States. Such a battle cannot be won. But Israel certainly does not need a military confrontation with Iran now either. It has its hands full with the war in Gaza and the rocket fire with Hezbollah on its northern border.

Israel increasingly isolated

Why then does Israel decide for an escalation (because it certainly is), with all the associated risks? “I think it has to do with the fact that Israel feels increasingly isolated internationally,” says Dutch Iran expert Peyman Jafari. ‘Then playing the Iranian card is politically useful, because who isn’t against Iran?’

In this way, the idea goes, Israel shows what the international playing field is really about: a contradiction between the civilized world and the forces of evil, led by Iran’s Israel-haters. ‘In this way, the US and Europe will once again be at your side. Because no one is going to cut you off.”

That is one way of looking at things, the cynical geopolitical one. Way two is expressed by Meir Litvak, professor of Iranian studies at Tel Aviv University. He does not believe that Israel is trying to divert attention from the war in Gaza with the attack.

‘No way. Remember that since the start of the war in Gaza, more than 150,000 Israelis in the north of the country have been driven from their homes. Villages in northern Israel have been destroyed. Israel wants to end the conflict there and perhaps push Hezbollah a little north, above the Litani River, so that civilians can return to their homes.”

De-escalation in South Lebanon

It’s that simple, according to Litvak. Israel wants Hezbollah to stop shelling from southern Lebanon and is therefore putting pressure on Iran. As a power behind the scenes, this must contain Hezbollah. “It would be very naive to believe that Israel would risk another war to divert attention from Gaza. This will certainly not divert attention from Gaza. They want to show Iran that it will pay a high price if it does not ensure de-escalation in southern Lebanon.’

Nevertheless, Litvak believes Tehran will hit back hard. ‘Of course, it’s a blow to Iran. The Iranians are very keen to respond in a similar way at the same level.”

So an Israeli embassy? ‘Yes. Maybe they will try to blow up an embassy or a Jewish institution. In 1994 they attacked the Jewish community center in Buenos Aires, killing almost a hundred people. Or Israeli tourists. It can happen anywhere in the world. Maybe in Dubai, maybe in Europe, maybe in Istanbul.’