The first direct round of combat between Israel and Iran is over for now. Whether or not under American pressure, both have decided that war is not in their interests. But the abyss remains within shooting range. What struck me in the last crisis: the deafening Western chorus of condemnations of the Iranian drone and missile attack on Israel on April 13. In contrast to the almost total silence about the reason for this, the Israeli attack on April 1 on the Iranian consulate in Damascus and the generals within it, which was a provocative escalation of the years-long mutual shadow war.
The New York Times on April 19, an American source wrote that the Israelis had completely misjudged the Iranian response. Do I believe that? Come on. Just as Hamas knew that its murderous raid on Israel on October 7 would lead to unprecedented bloody Israeli retaliation, so everyone knew that Iran would have to give up its self-proclaimed “strategic patience” and strike back. A matter of foreign deterrence and domestic image. I think Israel’s intention was to then go in hard and then decide on a possible war with American help. That would immediately divert attention from the massacre in Gaza, which in any case happened.
So I was struck by the Western condemnations of the Iranian attack, but of course I was not surprised. After all, the Islamic regime is seen here as the personification of evil and Israel is our ally. To be sure (I can already see the furious X-reactions coming): no, I don’t see much good in Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and his followers, on the contrary.
The condemnations are now followed seamlessly by new American sanctions (and also European ones), on top of the almost five thousand that have already been imposed against Iran since the occupation of the American embassy in Tehran in November 1979. These new sanctions are aimed, among other things, against the Iranian weapons program and also, I read, intended to isolate the Islamic republic on the world stage.
The latter is not so much aimed at Iran’s friends Russia and China in the new ‘Axis of Evil’, but at its Arab neighbors, especially Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which have mended their relations with Iran in the past few years . America makes no secret of its keenness to forge a military alliance with Israel and these countries against Iran. Although the Emirates maintain normal relations with Israel and the Saudi crown prince is willing to do so, they remain wary of military cooperation, partly due to fear of Iranian missiles (think 2019, the Iranian attack on Aramco). Better to stay friends with the neighbors. In any case, the crown prince first demands a defense agreement with America under which the serving president will come to the rescue in the event of an Iranian attack. That is, in contrast to Trump in 2019 who said that the Saudis could hire American auxiliaries. That was bad for Arab confidence in America, which had already been damaged by President Obama’s pivot to Asia.
But. Can Arab leaders, no matter how authoritarian, afford to defy deeply anti-Israel popular opinion by openly allying with Israel? I know that Saudi Arabia also helped neutralize the Iranian attack on Israel on April 13, but Riyadh did not know how quickly to deny that. The Gaza war is far from over, and Al Jazeera also shows vivid images of increasing Israeli oppression in the occupied West Bank. It is not without reason that Saudi media are very concerned about pro-Palestinian protests in Jordan: “A direct threat to Saudi Arabia’s own security,” according to the Saudi Arab News.
Iran or Israel? Your own survival always comes first.
Carolien Roelants is a Middle East expert.
To share
Email the editor
