Outgoing Prime Minister Mark Rutte has almost secured his new job. On Monday morning, Turkey announced that it would support Rutte’s candidacy as NATO Secretary General. This means he is only waiting for the green light from only 3 of the 32 member states: Slovakia, Romania and Hungary.
On Friday the Turks seemed to be obstructive for a while. Rutte had traveled to Istanbul at his own expense for consultations with Turkish President Erdogan, had to wait for him there all day, and was able to leave again after a short consultation. Without an explicit statement of support from Erdogan.
But privately, that support was said to have already been expressed on Friday. It was not without reason that Rutte spoke afterwards about a “very positive conversation” and hinted that he might be Secretary General of NATO during his next visit to Erdogan. And it is not without reason that Erdogan repeatedly called Rutte “my comrade” (dostum) and the Turkish delegation had to giggle when their president said with a grin: “We wish Rutte good luck on his new path from now on.” It were inside jokes.
Instead of immediately granting Rutte a public statement of support, the Turks announced their support the following Monday to the ‘dean’, the longest-serving NATO ambassador in Brussels. Turkey thus chose the formal route. It is unclear why exactly. But what is certain is that Erdogan is showing as usual: Turkey does what it wants, when it wants.
The question is whether the Turkish president had any major doubts about Rutte’s candidacy at all. The two leaders have known each other for years and despite previous conflicts, they have good common ground. Turkish inertia seems to have been more tactical. Ankara often stretches negotiations to get the most out of it and show the world that no one can ignore Turkey.
Rutte showed respect
By coming to Istanbul, Rutte showed the respect that Turkey craves on the world stage. That need is certainly strong within NATO. Turkey has been a member since 1952. With 425,000 soldiers, it has the largest army in the alliance after the US, but believes that Western countries do not take sufficient account of Turkish security interests. For example, the US has been arming the YPG, the Syrian sister organization of the PKK (Kurdistan Workers’ Party), for years, which has been embroiled in a war with the Turkish state for decades and has been carrying out attacks on Turkish soldiers and civilians.
Erdogan wanted to be able to look Rutte in the eye on Friday to personally remind him of these grievances and interests. The Turkish president attaches great importance to personal relationships and hopes to have a future ally within NATO in Rutte. The outgoing Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg, was very popular in Ankara.
Rutte told the Dutch press on Friday that he had made no promises to Erdogan in exchange for his support. “There are no promises, there is an understanding of what the concerns are on the Turkish side,” Rutte said. He referred to the fight against terrorism, the protection of NATO’s southern flank in Iraq and Syria and the complaint often heard in Turkey that Western countries have too much dominance in the organization.
The fact that Rutte is accommodating towards Ankara is also due to the war in Ukraine. Rutte is known as a fierce supporter of continued support for President Zelensky and will continue that course as eventual NATO leader. He realizes how important Turkey’s large army and tactical location on the Black Sea could be for this in the future.
But before Rutte can really get to work, he still has to visit Slovakia, Romania and Hungary. The latter country in particular is seen as the major obstacle, because Rutte has a notoriously bad relationship with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, partly due to his criticism of Hungarian anti-LGBT legislation. The question is whether Rutte is prepared to have an audience with this authoritarian leader after Erdogan.
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