NATO hopeful about the effect of aid to Ukraine, despite steady loss of territory

• Jesper van Aken

  editor Online

Ukrainian President Zelensky was especially relieved when, after months, the United States agreed to a $61 billion aid package for his country. At the same time, the situation at the front is deteriorating day by day.

“Supplies are starting to come in, but the pace needs to be accelerated,” Zelensky said today. He received NATO chief Stoltenberg in Kyiv. The Norwegian acknowledged that the alliance has not fulfilled its military promises, such as supplying sufficient ammunition, in recent times. But according to the Secretary General, that is now about to change.

“This is going to make a difference,” Stoltenberg referred to the American support package. “Just as the lack of support has also made a difference,” he said, referring to the Russian advances in recent months.

The head of the Ukrainian security service Kyrylo Budanov previously predicted that May and June will be a difficult period for Ukraine. After all, the Russian army has more weapons and manpower that are currently being fully deployed, resulting in territorial gains.

Although fighting takes place along the entire front, the heaviest fighting is mainly focused around Avdiivka and Khasiv Yar. “And the last place in particular is of strategic importance,” says former army commander Mart de Kruif.

“If the Russians manage to conquer that place, they can choose whether they push on to the west or turn north in the direction of Kharkiv. From Avdiivka you can only go west.”

The American think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) also sees that the Ukrainian army is retreating and that Russia is gaining ground in the regions around Avdiivka and Chasiv Yar. However, it is thought that it will only be relatively small pinpricks. “Ukrainian defenses will not be overwhelmed and the Russians will not overrun Ukraine,” the think tank wrote.

The ISW sees that Ukraine is now sending extra troops to Kharkiv to defend the city, should the Russians decide to move towards Ukraine’s second largest city. Although it is believed that the Russian army will not be able to completely conquer the city.

The Russians are fighting around both Avdiivka and Chasiv Yar with large divisions of up to ten thousand men and with a lot of violence. And so for De Kruif it is logical that Ukraine is giving up ground.

“The Ukrainians are not going to fight to the death here. They do not deploy their people where they cannot win and are saving their forces for the major Russian offensive. The really big cities are also still in Ukrainian hands and they lie behind a strong defense line. Russia is conquering So there is ground, but it is not a burglary, breakthrough or outbreak,” says De Kruif.

With the 61 billion dollars in American aid, Ukraine should gain more strength at the front. De Kruif thinks that this could happen in the short term. “The support will certainly not come too late. The first grenades have already arrived and that will mean that the Russian advance will be slower. In addition, they can inflict greater losses on the Russians with those grenades.”

“We are actually now in a phase in which we are waiting for Western support to become effective, but in which Ukraine is still forced to give up ground.”

Although the momentum is now in the hands of the Russians, the predicted major offensive is delayed for the time being. Think tank ISW expects the offensive at the end of May, beginning of June. Former commander De Kruif does not dare to put his hand in the fire.

“You plan such a major offensive for weeks and months. It is not a game where you press a button and it happens. It could be in a few weeks, but also in the summer. Such an offensive also depends on weather.”

In the daily report, the ISW writes that a well-supplied Ukrainian army should be able to stop this offensive. “But before all the support reaches the front, we could be weeks or months away,” said de Kruif.