American weapons are coming to Ukraine, but who will operate them?

• Julian Buijzen

  Foreign editor

A slight wave of relief swept through Ukraine when the United States approved a 60 billion euro aid package a week and a half ago. After months of ammunition shortages, weapons are finally coming to the front again. But that does not mean that a Ukrainian offensive can be expected anytime soon. The country is increasingly having difficulty finding soldiers to operate the weapons.

In the first months of the war, Ukrainians were still lining up to join the army, but after more than two years of fighting, those lines have disappeared. The fact that there are many casualties and that the end of the war is not in sight has meant that few men volunteer to serve.

The consequences of this troop shortage are increasingly visible at the front. Things recently went wrong in Otsjeretyne, a village west of Avdiivka in the southeast of the country. The 47th mechanized brigade was relieved so that the soldiers could go on leave, their commander wrote on Facebook. But the new brigade did not have the capabilities to hold the line, causing the Russians to gain 5 kilometers of territory.

It is the second example in a short time of a Ukrainian brigade being overrun. In the eastern city of Chasiv Yar, things are also difficult for the Ukrainians due to a lack of troops, good training and exhaustion after months of non-stop fighting without leave.

In the case of the 47th Brigade, considered one of the best in the country, it was the first time in more than a year of fighting that they were able to go on leave.

In December, the army leadership announced that it needed half a million additional recruits. New brigades must be established and losses compensated. It must also provide scope for sending current troops on leave. But where those recruits should come from is a very sensitive political question.

The fact that extra troops and ammunition are desperately needed is also evident in Tsjasiv Yar, says correspondent Christiaan Paauwe:

Ukrainian army increasingly in trouble at the front

In the first months of this year, a new mobilization law was discussed behind closed doors. “The law has led to a lot of discussion in society,” says Julia Soldatiuk-Westerveld, Ukraine expert at the Clingendael Institute.

Experts call the law a hot potato for which no one wants to take responsibility. “It is related to Zelensky’s popularity,” says Soldatiuk-Westerveld. “He is very sensitive to criticism from society.”

The decision was made last month. With the new mobilization law, the age at which men can be mobilized will be lowered from 27 to 25 years. It becomes more difficult to avoid conscription and those who do are punished more severely. For example, bank accounts can be blocked or driving licenses can be declared invalid.

According to Soldatiuk-Westerveld, the law came about with great difficulty. “The fact that this law has only now been adopted is a consequence of postponing difficult choices. Zelensky wants to create broad support among the population, otherwise the mobilization would have little effect in his view.”

Some of those difficult choices have now also been postponed. For example, an earlier version of the law stated that conscripts would be given the opportunity to go home after three years at the front. In this way, conscription was intended to become less hopeless, but that part was removed from the army after pressure.

The lack of punishment for conscientious objectors also leads to anger among the population. This mainly focuses on conscripts who have fled abroad. According to the BBC, this would involve a group of around 650,000 conscripts. The shortage would have been solved in one fell swoop with that group.

To make things more difficult for this group, Ukraine is stopping providing consular assistance. Anyone who wants to renew their passport will have to return to Ukraine with the risk of having to join the army.

In addition, there are voices that it should be possible to call up men under the age of 25. The average age in the Ukrainian army is over 40 years old. but many people fear that calling on young people will endanger the future of the economy and therefore the country. The idea is that conscription will be at the expense of their studies and therefore the level of knowledge in the country. Zelensky previously said he had no interest in calling on young people.

Ukraine already has a major shortage of young people between the ages of 20 and 30 as a result of the collapse of the Soviet Union. Due to the uncertain times, few couples wanted children:

It remains to be seen what the effect will be at the front of the new mobilization law, which will come into effect in two weeks. “A large number of well-trained soldiers have died,” says Ukraine expert Soldatiuk-Westerveld. “People who are being trained now often have insufficient training.”

But there is not much time to see whether the new law works sufficiently. The 1,000 kilometer long front squeaks and creaks and needs reinforcement quickly to absorb a possible Russian spring offensive.