Remarkably active hurricane season expected in the Caribbean due to warm sea water

The fact that there were many hurricanes in 2023 despite the dampening effect of El Niño (wind shear blows apart incipient storms) is due to the unprecedentedly high sea water temperature. The North Atlantic Ocean has been warmer for more than a year than ever before at the same time of year. In the summer of 2023, the average water temperature was above 25 degrees, the normal temperature being 24 degrees. It was much warmer locally.

In the Caribbean, the sea water is often above 29 degrees in summer. Hurricanes can increase in strength when the sea water is warmer than 26.5 degrees. The islands in the Caribbean Netherlands will not have been hit by hurricanes in 2023. Hurricane Tammy passed 100 kilometers from the islands of Saba, Sint Eustatius and Sint Maarten.

Since 1981, 36 tropical storms and hurricanes have raged near the Windward Islands (a group of islands in the Caribbean Sea). The heaviest were Irma and Maria in 2017. Fifteen people died on Sint Maarten when Hurricane Irma passed over. There was also nuisance on Saba and St. Eustatius. Hurricanes are less common on Bonaire. Closer to the equator, thunderstorms are less likely to develop into hurricanes. The fact that Hurricane Matthew reached Bonaire in 2016 was exceptional.

Climate change has little influence on the number of hurricanes, but when they do occur they are wetter and stronger. The KNMI’23 climate scenario states that hurricanes of the heaviest category will occur more often on Saba and Sint Eustatius: once every 20 to 34 years in the period up to 2050, compared to once every 39 years now.