NOS News•today, 6:21 PM
Although nothing has been publicly reported by the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu was crystal clear today: if the court issues an arrest warrant against him, it will be a “historic scandal”, according to him.
It underlines the weight of the arrest warrants that have been hanging over the market for a few days now against Netanyahu, his Defense Minister Gallant and his chief of staff Halevi.
The arrest warrants may follow from investigations into war crimes in Gaza and the occupied West Bank, which the ICC has been conducting since 2014. Following the October 7 Hamas attacks, new cases have been added to the file, potentially accusing Israel of blocking humanitarian aid and using excessive force during the offensive in Gaza.
The ICC is also reportedly considering issuing arrest warrants against Hamas leaders.
“If the arrest warrants against the Israeli leaders are really issued, it would mean a symbolic defeat for Israel,” says Erwin van Veen, Middle East expert at the Clingendael Institute. “Because even if Israel does not recognize the ICC, Netanyahu and his colleagues will suddenly be in the same category as Congolese rebel leaders, former Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir and Russian President Putin. And that is bad for Israel’s international status and moral image .”
For now, the stories about arrest warrants remain rumors, which first surfaced in Israeli media. Netanyahu himself got the ball rolling last Friday with one https://twitter.com/netanyahu/status/1783855474573492732. There he wrote that he sees an arrest warrant as “undermining Israel’s fundamental right to self-protection.”
Two days later, Foreign Minister Katz said that Israeli embassies worldwide are prepared for “serious waves of anti-Semitism” as soon as the ICC issues the orders. The ICC itself is externally silent about the rumors.
Meanwhile, Israel’s closest ally America – which has a tense relationship with the ICC and is not affiliated with it – is also aware of the rumors. The White House says it does not support the war crimes investigation and several American politicians say it worsens international tensions and fuels anti-Semitism.
Diplomats from the G7 countries are also making efforts to stop the arrest warrants. They say it could disrupt ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas.
“These are opportunistic arguments,” says expert Van Veen. “A breakthrough has been waiting for months, and now this would suddenly be the reason if one of the parties withdraws? In addition, the United States previously imposed sanctions. These do not prevent arrest warrants.”
If the arrest warrants are issued, it would be the first time that an international arrest warrant has been issued against high-ranking Israelis. This is in addition to the case on the legality of the Israeli occupation and the genocide case filed against Israel at the International Court of Justice. That court, also located in The Hague, deals with disputes between states.
And then there are the diplomatic consequences. Such an arrest warrant puts not only Israel, but also allies in a difficult position. If Netanyahu travels to a country that is a member of the ICC, he must be arrested there and extradited to The Hague.
“This is very complicated for the Netherlands, which has a very high regard for the ICC,” says André Nollkaemper, professor of International Law at the University of Amsterdam. “It puts a lot of pressure on the relationship between the Netherlands and Israel, which is close.”
A member state of the ICC can politically choose someone not to be extradited, even if there is an arrest warrant. “But that of course has consequences for its own image and for the international legal order,” says Van Veen. “You actually kick that hard.”
The ICC is also receiving increasing criticism, especially from its own members and from countries that recognize the Palestinian state. For example, the body would take few concrete steps to investigate genocide in Gaza.
“If there are no arrest warrants, that says something about the image of the ICC,” says Nollkaemper. “So many borders have now been crossed, so many victims and so much destruction. It raises questions, why is there attention for one conflict and not for the other?”
According to him, the ICC is constantly weighing the risks and rewards of investigations and possible arrest warrants. “But sitting still is no longer possible. I would also be surprised if the ICC is not already taking concrete steps in the investigation of crimes in Palestinian areas, such as arrest warrants. That will also be a strategic step towards African countries, which have often criticized the ICC for focusing unilaterally on African conflicts. The only question is when, and at what time, the dreaded mail will be delivered to Israel.”
