Two and a half billion euros – that is how much extra money Defense still needs if the Netherlands wants to fulfill the NATO agreement to spend at least 2 percent of the gross domestic product (GDP) on the armed forces.
Minister of Defense Kajsa Ollongren (D66) would have preferred to have this arranged now. But the Rutte IV cabinet has been out of office for almost a year and Defense will therefore have to settle for an extra 500 million euros. A nice bonus, says Ollongren, but not enough to lay a good foundation for the future: “Another 2.5 billion is needed!”
The war in Ukraine requires her full attention. It is only mid-afternoon and Ollongren is already back at Schiphol-Oost, after flying back and forth to Luxembourg for a meeting with European ministers. While Ukrainian cities are under fire every day, European countries are unable to provide additional air defense for Kyiv – this Friday the topic is on the agenda for the fourth time in two weeks. And while the need in Ukraine is great, Ollongren says: “The Ukrainians are not able to protect their cities.”
For weeks, the Zelensky government has been begging for additional Patriots, the American air defense system that has proven highly effective in shooting down Russian missiles. But European countries can hardly do without the valuable weapon system. Only Germany (which previously donated Patriots) has now promised an extra battery. The Netherlands (which previously supplied launchers and missiles) promised to contribute 150 million to the costs, but other ‘Patriot countries’, such as Spain and Greece, are still keeping their fingers crossed.
The Netherlands has four batteries. Why not give one to Ukraine?
“That is difficult. We are talking about scarce capacity, also for the Netherlands. We can certainly do something, but that will have to be done in collaboration with other countries.”
An additional seven Patriot systems are needed, Zelensky said. Is that going to work?
“It will certainly be possible to give it impetus.”
American support to Ukraine was at a standstill for months. Last week, the US Congress finally approved a $60 billion aid package. Is Ukraine saved now?
“Europe has always continued, we have even stepped up our game. But 60 billion is so much money that the US is once again making the difference. So I understand the Ukrainian joy very well. We heard cheering at the front.”
How close was Ukraine to total collapse?
“The Ukrainians say that was not an issue and I believe that too. But the proportions are skewed. Things are difficult at the front due to a lack of ammunition. The Russians have managed to saturate Ukrainian air defenses with missiles and drones. And if Ukraine calls every day for more air defenses, this is of course also an invitation to the Russians to continue their attacks.”
It is a realistic prospect that Ukraine will ultimately fail to defeat Russia
In December, NATO spoke of a ‘stalemate’ in Ukraine, but since January the tone has suddenly become much more alarmist. Senior generals are now even talking about a possible attack on NATO territory. What happened?
“We saw that Russia, much faster than most experts expected, managed to recover from the enormous losses they suffered. The Russians shifted to a war economy, started producing many more weapons, and were able to replenish their supplies much faster than we anticipated. That has put pressure on the matter: it is a realistic prospect that Ukraine will ultimately not succeed in defeating Russia. So what?”
Then Russia attacks NATO?
“We have always said: Ukraine will not be the last, but the first country to be attacked. After Ukraine, Russia still has a few options: Georgia, Moldova. After that it’s all NATO territory. Medvedev [voormalig premier, tegenwoordig vicevoorzitter van de Russische veiligheidsraad, red.] speaks about this in visual terms.”
Medvedev seems to drink quite a lot.
“Putin radiates revanchism. Whether it is the restoration of the Great Russian Empire or the Soviet Union: Putin’s border extends beyond NATO’s eastern border.”
You say: Putin also wants to annex NATO territory?
“If you listen to him, he has that ambition. Putin has not said: I am going to attack NATO. But he does believe that Russia has been wronged in all kinds of ways. That is why the Baltic states feel so threatened, that is why Finland has decided to join NATO. This indeed poses a serious threat.”
Peace cannot be negotiated with such a man.
“I don’t know, that remains to be seen. It is important that Ukraine gets a much better starting position than it currently has. It is up to Ukraine to determine the moment for negotiations, but I can well imagine that they cannot do that now, with the knife at their throat.”
You can’t make agreements with a regime that thinks the Baltic states belong to Russia, can you?
“That is why we must strengthen NATO. Our deterrence must be in order, so that it is too risky for Putin to consider such an attack.”
You don’t have a happy message.
“No, but we don’t live in happy times in that regard.”
How much time do we have left to prepare for the Russian attack?
“For now, Russia still has its hands full with Ukraine. But suppose Russia were to win – however you define that – from that moment on there is a direct threat.”
You sent a conscription letter to seventeen-year-olds warning of war.
“When we talk about war in the Netherlands, especially with May 4 and 5 approaching, we talk about the past, about the Second World War. But there is now also war in Europe and it is not the case that we ourselves can never get into war again – that is certainly possible. We pointed this out in the conscription letter to seventeen-year-olds: conscription has been suspended and we are not going to activate it now, but you can also do something else. We have the voluntary service year. If you go to study, you can go to the Defense College. Not everyone has to do that. But we would like to have more people at Defense than now.”
That year of service is a drop in the ocean. At least 20,000 soldiers have already died in Ukraine. Other countries are thinking out loud about universal conscription.
“A conflict like in Ukraine, with trenches, with terrible losses, that is the war we do not want to end up in. That is why we invest in air superiority, for exampledeep strike with weapons that can be deployed over great distances.”
With the new American support package, Ukraine will also have access to ATACMS missiles with a range of 300 kilometers. But Kyiv is not allowed by the US to attack targets in Russia. Where does the Netherlands stand in this regard?
“We have a simple agreement. If the Netherlands supplies weapons to Ukraine, we ask that they use them in self-defense in accordance with Article 51 of the UN Charter and that they comply with international humanitarian law. According to the UN Charter, you are also allowed to attack those you are defending yourself against, for example in Russia.”
So, as far as you are concerned, a military base in Kursk or Bryansk in the Russian hinterland can be bombed?
“As needed. That is their decision.”
And the Crimean Bridge?
“They are allowed to defend themselves, and they can attack militarily relevant targets.”
Also with the F-16s that the Netherlands will make available from the end of September?
“There is no difference between the F-16 and other weapon systems. We have not yet delivered the F-16s, so we still have to formally record that.”
Ukraine would like to become a member of NATO and continues to ask for additional commitments.
“I always say to Ukraine: what more could you want than what we have already said: you will become a member of NATO.”
They want to join now.
“Ukraine also understands that this is not possible now. But other than that, all forms of cooperation are already there. There is a NATO-Ukraine Council, which Zelensky can simply convene, as happened last Friday. Ukraine’s future lies in NATO. But first we have to make sure they win that war.”
NATO cannot afford for Ukraine to lose.
“That’s true. We have been providing them with almost everything we have for over two years.”
In the Spring Memorandum you announce that additional investments will be made in ammunition and air defense. But the Royal Netherlands Army is crying out for tanks.
“There is a Dutch-German tank battalion.”
To be precise: the army has eighteen loan Leopards with large Bundeswehr crosses on them.
“You have to make choices. We have now said: we will do the air defense first. If we invest further, other NATO needs will come into the picture, such as tanks. But we also need money for innovation, for unmanned systems, for drones. We must invest in reserves so that you can sustain a conflict for longer.
“There are limits to what an outgoing cabinet can do financially. An additional half billion for ammunition is still hard to explain. But fundamental choices for the defense budget of the future, whether it will be 2, 2.5 or 3 percent of GDP, must be made by a new coalition.”
Wilders-I should opt for at least 2 percent defense expenditure, you actually say.
“We now know that there will not be a cabinet led by Wilders.”
How do you view the formation?
“Because of the war, because of the security situation we are in, I am less concerned with it than I would otherwise be. I’ll just continue with my work – until someone takes over for me.”
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