VFor the fifth time, Vladimir Putin will appear at the Grand Kremlin Palace on Tuesday to take the oath as Russia’s president for the next six years, with his hand on the constitution. The solemn ceremony, instituted under his predecessor Boris Yeltsin, has long become routine for Putin, although according to his spokesman, ‘some changes’ have been made to the protocol this year. Which one exactly is not known.
At exactly 12 o’clock, Putin walks along a red carpet among thousands of guests into the pompous St. Andrew’s Hall. After the swearing-in ceremony, he speaks a short word, gun salutes are fired outside and Putin traditionally inspects a parade of his Kremlin regiment.
About the author
Geert Groot Koerkamp is Russia correspondent de Volkskrant. He lives in Moscow.
After that, it’s back to business as usual for him. Putin can stay in office until 2030. If he serves that term, he will be 77 and will have been in power for more than thirty years, including 4.5 years as prime minister. As a result of the constitutional change implemented in 2020, he can, in theory, add another presidential term, until 2036. Without those changes, his last term would now have ended and Russia would now have had a different president.
A new president also means a new government. After the inauguration, the incumbent Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin submits the resignation of his cabinet. The State Duma (the lower house) will probably vote on the new prime minister next Friday. That could be Mishustin again, although there have been speculations about a new government leader in recent weeks.
Foot soldier
Last week, Putin had an unexpected meeting with the governor of Tula province, Alexei Djoemin, who has been mentioned as a prime minister candidate in the past. Djoemin calls himself a ‘foot soldier’ of Putin, was previously his bodyguard and also deputy minister of defense. The meeting fueled rumors of Djoemin’s impending appointment, perhaps as Prime Minister or Minister of Defense.
The Duma must also confirm the other cabinet members, with the exception of the heads of the so-called “power ministries” (including Defense, Interior and Foreign Affairs and the security services). These are appointed after consultation with the Federation Council (the upper house).
A renewal of the government could be an indication of impending political changes, but so far there is nothing to indicate this.
The objectives previously proclaimed by Putin of the ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine – demilitarization and so-called ‘denazification’ of the country – remain unchanged, although Moscow appears to have aimed for the quickest possible conquest of at least the entire territory of the country. Donetsk and Luhansk provinces. That goal will become more difficult to achieve if the Western military aid promised to Ukraine actually reaches the front.
Pressbreidel
The repression of dissenters continues unabated. In recent weeks, several journalists have been arrested and accused of having ties to an ‘extremist’ organization (read: the organization of the late opposition leader Alexei Navalny). The pre-trial detention of theater director Zhenya Berkovich and playwright Svetlana Petrichuk – both suspected of ‘endorsing terrorism’ in a widely acclaimed play – has just been extended by six months. And this week the State Duma passed a law banning “foreign agents” from participating in elections. Sitting municipal councilors who have been labeled ‘foreign agent’ must relinquish their mandate three months after the law comes into effect.
The economic prospects of Putin’s new term are shrouded in mystery and partly depend on the long-term effects of sanctions and the course of the battle in Ukraine. Earlier this year, Putin painted an optimistic picture of the next six years in his annual speech to the full parliament. He has instructed his government – with Mishustin as the main responsible – to ensure that Russia is the fourth largest economy in Europe by 2030. Russia must become self-sufficient, imports must be reduced, and its own industrial production and exports of durable goods must be drastically increased.
The signs are less rosy. The dramatic loss figures of the state gas company Gazprom over the past year are an indicator that Russia will suffer a significant loss of currency earnings in the coming years. Gazprom will not recover from those losses unless European deliveries are ever resumed. Oil production and exports will also decline as existing recoverable reserves are depleted. This will inevitably have consequences for Russia’s economic development in the longer term.
