The extreme expectations are causing consternation among meteorologists. “Until 2019, you never saw 40-somethings in calculations for our country. Now you do, but this beats everything,” says Buienradar meteorologist Reinier van den Berg.
A little more about the weather today and the coming days, but first let’s talk about those 40+. The chance that it will actually get to 40 degrees or warmer is very small.
But that in some weather models there is even a (very small) chance of exceeding 40 degrees, is already very special. “We never see such temperatures in the Netherlands, only on 25 and 26 July 2019, people in their forties were recorded somewhere in the Netherlands,” says Leander de Wit of Buienradar.
The main calculation of an American model indicates 40 degrees-plus. “Because the average of the calculations is still quite a bit below that, we are not going to take that into account with the weather forecast. But because this weather model has been showing such extreme temperatures for days in a row, it cannot be ruled out 100 percent. it gets so hot.”
How does a weather model work?
Such a weather model consists of a main calculation and also various calculations that include small shifts in the forecast. As we look further into the future, those calculations diverge further and the forecast becomes less accurate. That is why it is not yet possible to say with certainty that the extreme heat will reach us.
The main calculations of the models show that it will be 35 to 40 degrees in the south, but the spread in the other calculations is so great that that scenario is still far from certain. The average of all calculations lies in the south between 30 and 35 degrees, so that is a much more realistic picture at the moment.
Temperatures above 30 degrees seem to be achieved next weekend in any case. “Weather models are becoming more united regarding the tropical heat next weekend. The emphasis will probably be on Sunday and possibly Monday, but it is simply too early to say about details such as exact maximum temperatures.”
Summer week
So that’s still a bit uncertain. The expectations for today and the coming days are clearer. In any case, no extreme temperatures yet. Today it will be from 19 degrees on the Wadden to 24 degrees in the south. Tomorrow there will be more sun, especially in the center of the country, and a few degrees will rise.
It is the starting signal for a nice summer week. Tuesday and Wednesday it can be around 30 degrees in the southeast and it is warm in other parts of the country. It stays dry and the sun shows itself a lot.
After that, the temperature takes a small step back to completely return over the weekend. Then the hot air will reach our country and tropical temperatures will probably be on the program. Warmer than 40 degrees? At Buienradar they keep an eye on it.
Tags: Consternation among meteorologists weather model shows degrees week
