Rutte visits Erdogan in the hope of support for NATO job

• Mitra Nazar

  correspondent Turkey

Outgoing Prime Minister Rutte is in Istanbul today to visit Turkish President Erdogan. He does not do this on behalf of the Dutch government, but to talk about his ambition to become Secretary General of NATO. President Erdogan, who regularly obstructs NATO, can make or break Rutte’s future career.

Only Hungary, Slovakia, Romania and Turkey still need to be convinced of Rutte’s suitability for the highest post within the alliance. Turkey is the most important in that list, as one of the largest NATO countries. And so much depends on today’s meeting.

The visit to Turkey is different from usual in many ways. Rutte is not coming on the government plane, but bought a plane ticket for a regular scheduled flight himself. He has been invited by Erdogan to Istanbul, and not to the capital Ankara, where the government is based.

The meeting was organized at short notice and the exact location has not yet been announced. No one from the Government Information Service travels with the outgoing Prime Minister. However, he is accompanied in Istanbul by the Dutch ambassador.

He sees his moment to enforce guarantees.

Several sources in Ankara believe there is a good chance that Erdogan will give the green light to Rutte’s candidacy today, but nothing is certain until Erdogan says so. And in keeping with his political style, Erdogan wants something in return.

The Turkish president previously hinted that if Rutte wants his approval, he must above all promise to take Turkey’s concerns about terrorism seriously. This concerns the Kurdish PKK, with which Turkey has been at war for decades. He also wants Rutte, as NATO chief, to act impartially in conflicts that Turkey has with other NATO countries. Erdogan is mainly referring to Greece and Cyprus.

“NATO is one of the few routes through which Erdogan can exert pressure on the West,” says Nienke van Heukelingen, Turkey expert at the Clingendael Institute. “He sees his moment to enforce guarantees on issues that are important to Turkey. Just as he did with the accession of Finland and Sweden.”

Erdogan is often one of the last when it comes to decisions affecting NATO. The issue surrounding Sweden’s membership dragged on for a year and a half because Turkey was obstructive. Erdogan’s demands on Sweden were mainly related to Turkey’s internal struggle with the Kurdish terrorist group PKK.

Turkey has been frustrated for years about Western support for Kurdish fighting groups in northern Syria. Turkey also claims that European countries are sheltering PKK members. Kurdish groups are also active in the Netherlands, which Turkey claims are affiliated with the PKK. In addition, the relationship between Erdogan and Rutte has had low points, such as when the Netherlands banned a Turkish minister from campaigning in Rotterdam in 2017.

Yet things now look favorable for Rutte, says political analyst Selim Koru. “Erdogan has managed to secure a special position for Turkey within NATO, and he has a good relationship with the current Secretary General Stoltenberg,” he said. “He now wants guarantees that certain agreements made on terrorism and the sale of weapons will continue to exist.”

In fact, Rutte is going for a job interview with Erdogan.

Criticism of Turkish invasions in northern Syria and military operations in northern Iraq regularly cause tensions between Turkey and the rest of NATO. The conflicts with Greece over maritime waters and the Cyprus issue also remain hot topics.

But NATO also needs Turkey, with the military alliance’s second largest army and its strategic location between Europe and the Middle East. And according to Koru, Erdogan knows this very well. “He wants the benefits of NATO membership, but he doesn’t want Western countries telling him how to behave. He doesn’t want to be treated like a pariah.”

And so, during his conversation with Erdogan today, Rutte will have to make certain promises in exchange for Erdogan’s blessing. “In fact, Rutte is going for a job interview with Erdogan,” says Van Heukelingen. “

Erdogan and Rutte will meet on Friday afternoon. A joint press conference is expected to follow at half past six Dutch time.