Gold hits record high amid persistent safe-haven demand despite rate cut expectations and dollar strength

Gold prices opened on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) on Wednesday at Rs 69,340 per 10 grams and hit an intraday low of Rs 69,309. In the international market, prices hovered around $2,284.06 per ounce.

Meanwhile, silver opened at Rs 77.981 per kg and hit an intraday low of Rs 77.189 on the MCX. In the international market, the price hovered around $26.38 per ounce.

Manav Modi, Analyst, Commodity and Currency, MOFSL, said, “Gold prices surged to a record as ongoing safe-haven demand supported the metal, offsetting the impact of continuous change in rate cut expectations, and strength in dollar & US yields.”

The US dollar held steady at its highest in almost five months, hovering around the 105 mark. Similarly, the US 10Y yield is also steady at around 4.2%.

On the data front, a report showed US job opening held steady at higher levels in February; US JOLTS Job Openings was reported at 8.75 million in February against the expectations of 8.74 million. Meanwhile, US manufacturing PMI and factory orders were reported to be better than expected, cushioning the dollar on the lower end.

“Cleveland Fed president Mester recently raised her prediction for interest rates over the longer term due to the enduring strength of the US economy. Mixed comments from Fed officials and economic data points from the US are influencing a swift move in the interest rate probability chart for June, fluctuating between 50-70%,” said Modi.

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Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst, LKP Securities, said, “Gold prices remained positive, experiencing a minor gap-up opening above $2250 in Comex and above Rs 68500 with a Rs 150 gap-up in MCX. Dovish commentary from global banks spurred buying activity in gold, with expectations of interest rate cuts keeping prices firmly under bullish control. The underlying tone remains positive, supported by ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and expectations of interest rate cuts. In the short term, the 68200-68000 range acts as a strong positive zone for Gold, while resistance is seen around 69000-69200.”

Sentiment on the safe-haven assets has also been supported by geopolitical tensions that were ratcheted up following Iranian and Syrian media reports that an Israeli strike hit a building next to Iran’s embassy in Syria’s capital.