“If we now look at who is benefiting from this unrest, from more chaos in the European gas market, I see only one party that benefits from the uncertainty, and that is Russia.” Said Anders Puck Nielsen, a military analyst at the Royal Danish Defense College’s Center for Maritime Operations. He makes his statements to the AP news agency.
The pipelines are designed in such a way that spontaneous leakages are very unlikely. But according to Puck Nielsen, it’s not too difficult to cause damage: “You just need a boat, and a few divers who know how to handle explosives.”
‘Terrorist attack’
He also calls the timing ‘striking’, because on this day the Baltic pipeline was opened with a ceremony. This pipeline transports gas from Norway via Denmark to Poland and surrounding countries. “Maybe someone wanted to send a signal that something could also happen with Norwegian gas.”
Ukraine is even more certain: the explosions under the sea at the gas pipelines Nord Stream 1 and 2 were probably caused by a ‘terrorist attack’ by Moscow. “Nord Stream’s large-scale ‘gas leak’ is nothing more than a Russian-planned terrorist attack and an act of aggression against the EU,” Kiev presidential adviser Mikhaylo Podolyak wrote in a tweet.
Today, the Swedish Seismological Service announced that it had observed explosions in the sea, exactly where the pipes had previously started to leak. But it is not clear who is responsible for those explosions.
Russia’s response was sober. Asked whether the spills could be the result of deliberate sabotage, Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov said: “No scenario can be ruled out. It is a unique situation that requires urgent investigation. We are very concerned about this news.”
Don’t speculate about cause
According to the German magazine Der Spiegel, the American intelligence service CIA warned about a possible attack on the pipelines weeks ago.
Norway has stepped up the security of its oil and gas installations due to gas leaks in the Baltic Sea. Another factor is that there have been reports of ‘unknown drones’ in the North Sea. “Based on the information we’ve seen so far, there’s a lot of evidence of sabotage,” Norwegian Oil and Energy Minister Terje Aasland said in a statement.
Police in Sweden today launched a preliminary investigation into possible sabotage of the gas pipelines. “We have prepared a report and the crime classification is gross sabotage,” said a spokesman for the national police.
Swedish Foreign Minister Ann Linde does not want to prejudge whether the explosions were intentionally caused or who is to blame: “You have to be pretty sure what happened and how it affects our security.”
She did, however, speak with her Danish colleague Jeppe Kofod about the case. More talks are planned for later in the day, in which several ministries and government institutions will participate.
America ready
Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen previously indicated that he suspected intent. “It’s rare that there are three spills at any distance from each other, so it’s hard to imagine that this happened by accident.”
Denmark sends a warship to the area. The Swedish Coast Guard has sent a plane.
The United States has said through a White House spokesperson that it is ready to assist Europe in investigating the gas leaks. However, the official said he did not want to speculate about the cause. “I know that our European partners are conducting research and we are ready to help them with those efforts.”
The Nord Stream 1 and 2 run from Russia to Germany via the Baltic Sea. The pipes are currently not in use because Russia previously stopped supplying gas, but they are full of gas.
There is no longer any doubt that the spills were caused by explosions, said director Björn Lund of the Swedish Seismological Service. The service has measured powerful submarine explosions in the same areas where gas pipelines are leaking via monitoring stations in Sweden and Denmark.
Energy expert Jilles van den Beukel of the The Hague Center for Strategic Studies (HCSS) cannot think of any other explanation either, he tells RTL Nieuws. “You can’t think of anything other than that it’s sabotage, that someone has blown up these pipelines.”
Putin has no motive
Who the saboteur may have been and what he has to gain from this action, Van den Beukel is still in the dark about this. “Putin may be capable of anything. On the other hand, what does he gain by blowing up his own infrastructure, which cost 10 billion euros and rebuilding it for years? If he doesn’t want to supply gas, he can just make up a story about compressors.”
The European gas price shot up by almost 20 percent today. Damage to Nord Stream 1 and 2 has already caused an increase of about 10 percent, but the price was pushed even further when Russia announced it might impose sanctions on the Ukrainian state gas company Naftogaz. Those sanctions could potentially halt the flow of gas from Russia via Ukraine to Europe.
