Blinken travels to China with threatening language, Beijing seems unimpressed

HBlinken’s China visit, the second in less than a year, is part of the restored diplomatic relations between China and the United States. Relations between the two superpowers reached a low point early last year. But after a meeting between Presidents Xi Jinping and Joe Biden in November, it was decided to restore dialogue to avoid “miscalculations and conflicts.” Since then, consultations have taken place at a high level, although the ‘dialogue’ often seems more like a deaf conversation.

This visit by Blinken also promises to lead to contentious discussions. On the agenda are the crises in the Middle East, Ukraine, Taiwan and the South China Sea – all issues on which China and the US are diametrically opposed. Washington wants Beijing to use its influence to bring Iran and Russia to order, but Beijing believes that Washington must first persuade Israel and Ukraine to agree to a ceasefire.

The US also wants Beijing to stop “provocations” in the South China Sea, where the Chinese coast guard is increasingly clashing with Philippine ships. For this reason, the US is strengthening military ties with Japan and the Philippines. And they insist that Beijing maintain “peace and stability” in Taiwan, where the new president will be sworn in on May 20. China is also unhappy about this: it believes that Washington is interfering in China’s ‘internal affairs’.

Chinese support for Russia

But the biggest point of contention is Chinese support for Russia, which, according to the Americans, allows Russia’s war industry to continue operating despite Western sanctions. Combined with delayed Western arms support, Chinese aid has turned the fortunes of war in Ukraine. Although China does not supply weapons to Russia, it does supply dual-use goods that can be used for both civilian and military purposes. In addition, China imports a lot of Russian energy.

Blinken has increased the pressure in recent weeks, with briefings to allies and media on the goods China supplies to Russia, such as chips that can be used in tanks and missiles. “Right now, the biggest contribution to Russia’s military-industrial complex comes from China,” Blinken said at the G7 meeting in Italy last Thursday. “They want friendly relations with Europe, while at the same time fueling the greatest threat to European security since the end of the Cold War.”

During his visit, Blinken will warn Chinese leaders that they must stop supplying military-use technology to Russia or face punitive measures. According to the British business newspaper Financial Times the US government is considering sanctions against Chinese financial institutions. Two weeks ago, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen also warned about this during her visit to China. The pressure keeps increasing.

China strikes back

The Chinese government seems unimpressed and bounces the ball back. For example, Beijing is lashing out at the just-approved American aid packages to allies, which, in addition to support to Ukraine, also include military aid to Taiwan and a forced sale of the Chinese app TikTok. China is subtly threatening to halt the resumed diplomatic dialogue. It seems to be assumed that Biden does not want a major conflict with China in his election year and will not follow through with the threat of sanctions against Chinese banks.

Xie Feng, China’s ambassador to the US, warned on Friday that while the dialogue is aimed at avoiding conflict, “both countries are not far from conflict.” “The US is driving at high speed along the edge of a dangerous cliff, thinking their driving skills are sublime, but any small mistake could lead to a fall,” Xie said.

The Chinese Communist Party tries to portray the US as much as possible as a bogeyman: an imperialist nation that provoked the Russian invasion of Ukraine with NATO expansion and maintains the war with arms supplies to Ukraine. Beijing insists that its technology exports to Russia are part of ‘normal trade’. According to Beijing, American attempts to intervene are a form of aggression.

Russian visits to China

While the US consults with its allies, China is busy with its own diplomatic constituency. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov was in China last week, and President Vladimir Putin is expected in May for his 43rd meeting with Xi. Putin may also travel to North Korea, which supplies weapons to Russia. China also sent a senior politician to Pyongyang last week. Two camps are becoming increasingly clear.

Blinken should therefore not expect any concessions from Xi, just as many European leaders – last week German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, last month Prime Minister Mark Rutte – went home without any commitments. Xi will probably balance his position just enough to maintain the status quo with the US until the US presidential elections. After that, if Donald Trump wins, the cards on the world stage could be completely different.