Punished Tories do not seem to be able to reverse the negative spiral before parliamentary elections

Even the bright spot for the Conservative Party in last Thursday’s disastrous elections in England had a shadow hanging over it. In the northeast of the country, Conservative Baron Ben Houchen managed to save his mayoralty of the Tees Valley, but the blue rosette on his jacket was missing during the count. He had forgotten to pin this symbol of the Conservative Party on, the ‘port baron’ apologized. It is more likely that he was a bit embarrassed for his party, which is heading for a debacle like the Titanic on the icebergs.

As the parliamentary elections draw closer – due to be held before the end of the year – Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s party has reached a new low. It lost 473 council seats, on top of the 1,063 it had already lost a year ago. In London, Labor mayor Sadiq Khan won comfortably against his Conservative challenger, while the mayoralty of the West Midlands fell to Labor despite local pop star Ozzy Osbourne’s support for Tory candidate Andy Street.

Helmsman Sunak remained optimistic, despite the fact that even his ‘back garden’ in north Yorkshire turned red, the color of Labour. “We have a plan and it’s working,” he wrote The Daily Telegraph. There is dissatisfaction about him behind his back, but the ruling party knows it is too late to replace him. Some Tories say faction leader Penny Mordaunt, who so impressively carried the coronation sword during Charles’s accession, would make a better Prime Minister, but she has said she cannot simply be installed in Downing Street ‘like a new boiler’.

Glimmer of hope

Closer examination of the results gives the Tories a glimmer of hope. Conservative voters are not running en masse to Labour. They choose to stay home. It shows there is little enthusiasm for Labor leader Sir Keir Starmer. The social democrat, who Tories call ‘Captain Hindsight’ after a character from South Park, has his own problems. In Muslim areas, Labor lost ground to parties that see the Gaza war as a priority, such as George Galloway’s Labor Party and The Greens.

Sunak is finding that cleaning up the rubble left by his predecessors is no guarantee of electoral success. He is busy putting the state finances in order and trying to limit immigration through the ‘Rwanda plan’. After Thursday’s punishment, Suella Braverman, the Home Secretary who was dismissed by Sunak at the end of last year and who is now angling for leadership, spoke out. In order to seduce the renounced supporters, she believes the Prime Minister should pursue a firm Conservative policy.

In her view, this means an even tougher immigration policy, tax cuts and much more counterbalance to ‘woke’. According to her, the prime minister comes across too much as a technocratic manager and not enough as a strong, charismatic leader. Sunak has that in common with his rival Starmer, not exactly a Tony Blair 2.0. Neither of the two major parties is currently able to enchant the English voter. But while the Labor ‘brand’ makes a moderately positive impression, the image of the Conservatives has been seriously damaged.

Internal strife

The party has been in power since 2010, first for five years together with the Liberal Democrats and then alone, and has achieved little. In fact, the idea is that the Conservatives have mainly been concerned with themselves all these years. Especially since Brexit, the party has been the scene of internal disputes. In addition, numerous scandals, ranging from sex to corruption, cause MPs to leave. The by-elections that are therefore necessary again and again, such as last week in Blackpool, form a downward spiral.

With his party’s damaged image in mind, Baron Houchen has campaigned in the northeast of England, a smaller version of the Europoort, as a kind of independent candidate. During his mayoralty, a lot has been invested in his region over the past seven years, partly thanks to money from the central government. While the Conservatives in Westminster have promised everything for years, work has been done in the far northeast. The unspoken message to Sunak is: actions, not words. It is doubtful whether there is still enough time for the Prime Minister and his errant party to turn the tide.