PVV in the lead with 9 virtual seats, GL-PvdA (7) and VVD (6) follow
Of those who say they will definitely or probably vote in the European Parliament elections, a quarter (25%) plan to vote PVV, which would give Wilders’ party 9 seats. This is approximately the same as we saw in the poll that Ipsos (I&O) conducted at the end of February in response to Euronews and nine seats more than the PVV obtained in 2019.
GL-PvdA (19%, 7 seats) and VVD (14%, 6 seats) follow at some distance. This would mean a loss for GL-PvdA, since the PvdA already achieved 6 in 2019 alone (making it the largest) and GroenLinks also 3.
Table 1 – Seat poll European parliamentary elections
“Which party do you think you will vote for in the European Parliament elections?”
Basis: would definitely or probably vote and has party of first preference
Much depends on the turnout
There is – logically – still a lot of uncertainty among voters. Turnout will be an important factor. In European elections, turnout is usually around 40 percent and it is expected that this will not be much different this time. The PVV voter in particular is an uncertain factor. The PVV managed to get some of the voters who did not vote in 2021 to the polls in November 2023. But PVV voters from 2023 are now less enthusiastic than average about voting in June, although only a small proportion are already saying Certainly not to vote. If If PVV voters from 2023 vote again, it will largely be for the PVV again.
GL-PvdA voters from 2023 largely plan to vote and they are still remarkably loyal. GL-PvdA does have some competition from Volt and D66, but not much.
VVD and BBB voters from 2023 are not convinced that they will vote for these parties again, here the shares of ‘I don’t know yet’ are quite large (a third or more).
Of the 2023 NSC voters, only 16 percent currently say they will vote NSC again. NSC could lose votes to VVD, PVV, CDA, GL-PvdA, BBB and PvdD.
Main themes: immigration, climate change and international security
Immigration and asylum is so far the most important issue for voters in these elections: almost half (46%) mention this. Climate change (33%) and international security and wars (30%) follow at a distance.
The differences between voters of different parties are large. As much as 90 percent of
PVV voters let his choice for that party depend on plans regarding immigration. Also combating terrorism (34%) and the housing market (30%) play for these voters.
GL-PvdA voters especially want climate change counter (76%), followed at a distance by income inequality (36%), international security (wars) and nature (both 30%).
VVD voters to call immigration (59%), international security (52%) and economic policy (39%) as issues that play an important role in their party choice.
Leaders and factions are hardly known
In 2019, only Frans Timmermans enjoyed any fame as party leader: he was known to 69 percent of voters. None of the current party leaders comes close to this. In 2019, a quarter (24%) of voters said (one month before the elections) that they did not know any party leaders, which now – with 2.5 months to go – is 71 percent.
Bas Eickhout (11%) and Malik Azmani (10%) are both known to a tenth of the electorate. Both have been around for some time, but have only gradually gained popularity since 2019. Anja Haga (CU, 7%), Gerben-Jan Gerbrandy (D66, 6%), Ralf Dekker (FvD, 4%) are even more unknown. Anja Hazekamp (PvdD), a member of the European Parliament since 2014, is – just like in 2019 – known to 2 percent of Dutch voters.
The party leader of the PVV has not yet been announced.
The question of which faction in the European Parliament the Dutch parties belong to appears to be even more difficult to answer. Six in ten (58%) are unable to provide an answer and the remaining 42 percent do provide an answer but are always wrong.
The positive exception are the CDA voters, 58 percent of whom know (or think) that the party belongs to the EPP. The GL-PvdA voters are also in a fairly good position: they tick S&D (35%, which is correct for the PvdA) or Greens/EVA (37%, which is correct for GroenLinks).
Of the VVD (11%) and D66 voters (22%), only a minority know that both parties find shelter in Renew and only one in five PVV voters know that the PVV belongs to ID (Identity and Democracy). Only one in eight Euro-minded Volt voters know that Volt – just like GroenLinks – is housed by the Greens in the EP group.
Left
Download the entire report here.
Research accountability
This research took place from Friday afternoon 22 to Monday morning 25 March 2024. A total of 2,138 Dutch people aged 18 or older participated in this research. The sample was largely drawn from the I&O Research Panel. 100 respondents with a non-Western background participated via Panelclix.
The research results have been weighted by gender, age, region, education level and voting behavior in the House of Representatives elections in November 2023. The weighting has been carried out in accordance with the guidelines of the Golden Standard (CBS). This makes the sample representative of eligible Dutch residents (18+) with regard to these background characteristics.
