IEX Closing Call of Thursday, March 28, 2024

The term record level is nowadays subject to considerable inflation. As long as the AEX makes some profit every day, it will always reach a new top. Today, on the last day of this quarter, we are going up again. As a result, the AEX has again reached its highest level ever at 881.78 points. Congratulations! Enjoy it while you can!

Not that investors don’t have reason to be optimistic. Economies are in softer territory than soft, consumers are in good shape everywhere, and there is a more than good chance that the ECB and the Fed will make investors happy this summer with the first interest rate increases. As long as inflation continues to fall and the US economy does not overheat, that is the basic scenario.

American consumer less gloomy

Today there is again some positive macro news to report from the US. For example, American consumer confidence unexpectedly rose in March. The consumer confidence index rose from 76.9 in February to 79.4 in March. Halfway through the month, a preliminary figure indicated a small decline in confidence.

Confidence in the current state of the US economy rose from 79.4 to 82.5. Respondents were also more positive about economic expectations. That subindex rose from 75.2 to 77.4. Inflation expectations for the next 12 months stood at 2.9 percent, from 3.0 percent at the end of February. The American inflation forecast for the next 5 years fell from 2.9 to 2.8 percent. That also gives courage to the citizen.

The American economy continues to grow strongly

In the meantime, the American economy is growing rapidly. Growth for the fourth quarter of 2023 amounted to 3.4 percent. Economists took into account an average growth of 3.2 percent in advance. In the third quarter, the American economy still grew by 4.9 percent. In other words, things are going a little less well on the other side of the ocean, but that can only be beneficial in the light of American monetary policy. The Fed’s interest rate masters are not looking for the US to overheat.

Shares in the picture today

• ING (+2.03%) has been going really well since the beginning of February. Today, a target price increase from Morgan Stanley is helping the stock rise even further.
• Prosus (+1.38%) rises, as Tencent has risen earlier in China
• Shell (+0.85%%) plus because more is paid for oil.
• Akzo Nobel (-1.31%) receives a price target increase (from €74 to 76) from UBS.
• Morgan Stanley is reducing its stake in Adyen (-0.13%) a tiny bit.
• Quaero is smaller in Heijmans (+0.12%)
• Randstad (-5.38%) went ex-dividend this morning.
• ASML (-0.34%) decreases, despite the report that the government, although resigning, has decided to reserve €2.5 billion in Brainport Eindhoven, after ASML previously threatened to leave abroad.
• InPost (-4.22%) comes with mixed figures that are negatively received.
• Allfunds (-0.59%) has one potential acquirer less: SIX.
• The latest figures from HALL (+0.62%) are positively received by KBC. The company has decided to pay out the dividend only in cash, although it has been significantly reduced.
• Fastned (-1.34%) performed slightly less than expected in the second half of 2023, according to ING.
• NXFiltration (+28.1%%) recently raised €45 million and the stock has been on the rise since then. YTD, the share is still down 35% after the recent increases.

Top 3 winners and losers Amsterdam

Broad market

Gold, silver, oil and bitcoin are all higher. This also applies to most European fairs, although these are small pluses. The Nasdaq and Dow are struggling to decide whether to go up or down. The euro is losing slightly against the dollar.

Interests

European and American interest rates are moving differently today. It doesn’t amount to much.

• Dutch ten-year: 2.56% (+0.35%)
• German ten-year: 2.30% (+0.22%)
• British ten-year: 3.97% (+0.97%)
• Italian ten-year: 3.67% (+1.52%)
• US ten-year: 4.19% (-0.19%)
• Japanese ten-year: 0.71% (+0%)

Reference time: 4.25 pm

Analyzes from the IEX Investor Desk

HAL value rises to €155 per share
The net asset value of investment company HAL has increased by €0.5 billion in 2023. The balance per share on December 31, 2023 was €150.12, an increase of 1.6% compared to a year earlier. The total turnover of all participations amounted to €12.3 billion. The net profit attributed to HAL was €1.0 billion. That means for HAL’s price target? Read the analysis by analyst Hildo Laman.

More and more good news for TSMC
Things are clearly going in the right direction for the chip industry. Taiwan’s TSMC is benefiting from strong AI chip demand and it could benefit from this for a long time. A new factory is now also being built in Japan. Still want to buy? Read Ivo Breukink’s opinion?

Diversification Flow Traders is paying off
Market conditions are suboptimal for Flow Traders. Trading volumes did increase, but the low volatility has a dampening effect on the results. The heavy trading in bitcoin ios is a nice source of income for Flow Traders. This is evident from the company’s latest update. Read analyst Martin Crum’s assessment.

American elections promise to be a blockbuster for Flow Traders

Polish InPost continues to grow strongly
Despite persistent concerns about the development of the e-commerce market, Polish InPost is growing rapidly. The locker concept is a huge success and the company succeeds in introducing the success formula from its home country Poland to new countries. The price of the share listed in Amsterdam had risen by no less than 70% in the past 12 months. “Today the share has to fall back somewhat, which we mainly attribute to the flat margin that the group predicts for this year.” Read the opinion of analyst Peter Schutte.

Huge dividend increase from Knaus Tabbert
The German Camper and caravan builder Knaus Tabbert (+7.1% at 4:30 PM) has increased turnover by 37.3% to €1,441 million in 2023. The (adjusted) Ebitda even increased by 76.4% to €123.8 million. This improved the gross profit margin from 6.7% to 8.6%. The dividend is almost doubled to €2.90 per share (from €1.50). Analyst Patrick Beijersbergen sees his foresight confirmed. The share has been part of IEX’s Dividend Model Portfolio since December.

Which insurer is the best?
Insurance is not very sexy, but investors love insurance stocks thanks to the high dividend yield. A choice between ASR and NN Group is still quite difficult. Both ASR and NN Group pay an attractive dividend and have a Buy recommendation. Analyst Martin Crum finds it difficult to choose.

All the latest stock advice

Source: Guruwatch.nl

Who will walk away with a Golden Bull tonight?
Whether it concerns a beautiful, innovative product, long-term above-average returns, low costs, a user-friendly app or excellent service. There are many ways in which a company can distinguish itself.

Once a year, IEX puts the best investment parties in the spotlight. We do this by awarding Golden Bulls for various investment categories. Namely: Broker, online investment solution, asset manager, private bank, crowdfunding platform, provider of investment funds, provider of ETFs and provider of sustainable funds.

The nominees are already known. Tomorrow morning you will know who won.

Agenda Good Friday March 29

00:50: Retail Sales – February (Jap)
00:50: Industrial Production – February (Jap)
06:30: Retail turnover – February (NL)
06:30: Producer prices – February (NL)
08:45: Inflation – March vlpg (Fra)
09:00: European stock markets closed for Good Friday
1:30 PM: Personal Spending and PCE Inflation – February (US)
2:30 PM: Wall Street closed for Good Friday

And then this:

High punishment for Sam Bankman-Fried

Drill, baby, drill

An increase in stock markets is not a coincidence

It is indeed raining records

Active opportunities

Threatening pays off

The electric car revolution continues as usual

Help! Meme stocks are back

It must indeed be said: logos look better these days