Cigarettes are considerably more expensive in the Netherlands again: how well does that work against smoking?

How expensive is tobacco in the Netherlands compared to other countries?

Anyone who buys a pack of cigarettes in Australia has to pay the equivalent of around 25 euros. That country is the world champion of ‘discouraging tobacco by raising the price’. Dutch prices are a lot lower, but smoking is also becoming increasingly expensive here. The average price for a pack of 20 cigarettes was still 6.19 euros in 2017, but after the April excise duty increase this is expected to rise to 11.10 euros. In the European Union, the Netherlands ranks fifth among the most expensive tobacco countries, according to the latest comparative research. Ireland is the most expensive, Bulgaria the cheapest. It may take some time before excise duty increases also translate into price increases in the store, for example because sellers first get rid of old stock.

To what extent do more expensive cigarettes lead to fewer smokers?

Of every 3 smokers, 2 die prematurely from their addiction, according to major Australian research in BMC Medicine. Reason enough to discourage smoking. This has happened on many fronts in recent years, ranging from the smoking ban on platforms to frightening photos on cigarette packs.

Excise duty increases are the most powerful tool, various studies have shown. “But only with annual increases of at least 10 percent,” says Marc Willemsen, affiliated with the Trimbos Institute and special professor of tobacco control at Maastricht University. Experience shows: increase the price by 10 percent, and the number of smokers decreases by about 4 percent. ‘One half of this reduction is due to people who stop smoking due to the price increase, and the other half is due to people who do not start because of the higher price.’

In particular, those who have less to spend are reluctant to pay price increases. According to the Heart Foundation, KWF Kankerbestrijding and Lungfonds, this reduces the health gap that currently exists between rich and poor. At the top of the prosperity ladder, people smoke less and live 25 years longer in good health.

Other discouragement measures also work, but have a relatively weaker effect. For example, a display ban – cigarettes no longer visibly for sale – is estimated to result in 0.5 percent fewer smokers every year.

Willemsen: ‘The best way to reduce the number of smokers is to roll out the entire package of measures, from reducing points of sale to quitting aid to TV campaigns. And that combined with the price increase.’

What about vaping?

In 2040, less than 5 percent of adults will smoke, and not a single child. That is one of the goals of the Prevention Agreement, which the government has concluded with numerous social organizations. The RIVM recently calculated that the current anti-smoking measures fall short in this regard.

The country is now aiming for 10 percent smoking adults and 4 percent smoking young people by 2040. And that doesn’t even take into account vaping, which is gaining popularity among young people. One in five young people has vaped in the past year. Vapes also often contain the highly addictive substance nicotine. Nicotine is extra risky for young people: it can cause concentration problems and other damage to their brains, which are still developing.

Last October, a majority in Parliament voted in favor of a consumption tax for e-cigarettes and vapes, to be legally introduced before the summer of 2025.

Do smokers cross the border if it is cheaper elsewhere?

That’s not too bad, according to a study by the RIVM. Only 4 percent of smokers buy their tobacco in neighboring countries because it is cheaper there. These are mainly people who live in the border region. The research was limited by Covid measures, such as a closed border crossing to Belgium during the first lockdown. Willemsen: ‘But even without that effect, only a small proportion of smokers buy their stuff abroad, because it is slightly cheaper there.’