Climate neutral in 2050? Then everything has to be overhauled RTL News

The PBL has drawn up a comprehensive study into what is needed to achieve zero net greenhouse gas emissions in the Netherlands by 2050. This does not mean that no more CO2 or other greenhouse gases will be released into the air. But what is still emitted must be compensated for in some other way.

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PBL director Marko Hekkert says he is surprised that it is still possible to become climate neutral by 2050. But, he adds: “There is no more year to lose.”

The task is in a certain sense clear, according to Hekkert. We must fully focus on four ‘workhorses’, as the PBL calls them: sustainable electricity, green hydrogen, bio raw materials (with which you can make biofuels and bioplastics) and CO2 storage.

Five times as much electricity

The most important task is that we have to produce much, much more electricity. And of course not generated in coal or gas power stations, but via wind turbines, solar panels and nuclear energy.

To give an idea of ​​how big the task is: three to five times as much electricity must be generated as is currently the case.

All that electricity is needed to replace fossil energy sources, such as gas, gasoline and diesel. Electric heat pumps mean that gas-fired central heating boilers can be retired, and electric cars should ensure that by 2050 there will be virtually no more cars running on petrol or diesel.

To once again illustrate how big that task is: in 2019, only 3 percent of the total energy was clean (solar, wind, nuclear energy); by 2050 this should be between 50 and 60 percent. This not only concerns the electricity from sockets, but also fuels and heat.

Biofuels for aviation and shipping

But it takes so much more to become neutral. For the part of the fuel that cannot be replaced by electricity, such as kerosene for aircraft and fuel for shipping, a different approach must be taken.

This can be done through advanced biofuels. These can be completely synthetic or based on bio raw materials. But this does apply: there is currently very little available of these fuels, so we must hurry to scale up production.

CO2 storage is essential

In the PBL scenario, the CO2 released when making biofuels can be captured and converted into synthetic fuels with the help of hydrogen. The rest of the CO2 must be stored underground (or actually under the sea).

This undersea CO2 storage is also important to compensate for agricultural emissions, among other things, because it will not be possible to become CO2 neutral in that sector anyway.

Headache file: green hydrogen

Green hydrogen, that is hydrogen produced with green electricity, will also be essential to become climate neutral. Hydrogen can partly be a solution for fuels that cannot be replaced by electricity and it can be used in industry instead of natural gas.

But, the PBL warns, if the supply of bio raw materials, green hydrogen and the capacity for CO2 storage is not rapidly increased, achieving the targets could either become extremely expensive, or it may not be possible to become climate neutral at all.

Hydrogen in particular is a headache, because we still produce very little of it. Production is complicated and expensive. Moreover, there is no real market for it yet, which is why companies are not yet investing heavily in it.

180 billion

The PBL was unable to calculate how much it will cost to make the Netherlands climate neutral. The Planning Bureau has calculated the additional costs of one climate-neutral scenario compared to the other. The spread is extremely wide: the cheapest option is 180 billion euros cheaper than the most expensive, for the whole of the Netherlands.

An example: suppose it is not possible to produce enough hydrogen, then we will have to import much more of it. Since the supply is small and the demand is probably high by then, you can expect that hydrogen to become very expensive. And then the costs increase.

Another example: if it is not possible to recycle enough plastic, we will have to purchase many more bio raw materials abroad for the production of plastic. That is possible, but then everything will be much more expensive.

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The good news is that, if everything works out, the Netherlands will be much less dependent on abroad for its energy supply. More than half of the energy that the Netherlands consumes could then come from its own production. In 2019, that was only 10 percent.