Formation is approaching climax: the day to make decisions is near

Informant Richard van Zwol is not one for big words, a lifetime of civil service has left its mark. Yet in recent days he spoke of a ‘final week’ that is coming in the formation: from Monday, May 6.

Despite all the difficult negotiations, all the open complaints from Geert Wilders and all the thorny messages on X, only then will the verdict be reached. Is a cabinet supported by PVV, VVD, NSC and BBB in place or not?

The formation has apparently been on pause for a few days. There is a recess, Wilders went to Hungary for a speech among right-wing friends and NSC leader Pieter Omtzigt is in ‘private’ mode for a few days. At most, telephone calls and emails will be exchanged – “Bilaterals,” says Van Zwol.

Binary result

Only on May 6, 7 and 8 will the four party leaders put their heads together again. Wednesday, May 8, will be particularly exciting: due to the intervention of Ascension, this will be the last moment when decisions can be made, because the formators will deliver their work on May 15. And the outcome is binary: there will be a cabinet of these four or not.

In fact, the outside world still knows little about how promising the formation attempt is. Hardly anything has been leaked about what agreements are in the works – at most it is being examined whether 130 kilometers per hour can be driven on the highways again. This involves halving or even abolishing the deductible in healthcare. And that the NPO can look forward to a cutback of 200 million euros.

All those messages are also ‘just options on the table’, say those involved. And they are mainly related to the question: is it possible and how will it work out financially?

Calculate scenarios

The parties hope to receive an answer from the Central Planning Bureau. The calculators there will use the coming week to calculate ‘scenarios’. This is significant, because BBB, PVV and NSC did not have their own election manifesto calculated, because the CPB would look too one-sidedly at the effects of policy. BBB leader Caroline van der Plas now thinks it is useful. Does she agree with the CPB’s conclusions if they are disappointing? “We’ll see what happens. These are if-then questions. If my aunt had had a penis, it would have been my uncle.”

What is nevertheless clear: the parties want to adhere to European budgetary rules. This most likely means that cuts will have to be made and that not all parties’ plans can go ahead. The question is whether Wilders can keep his fiery promise to abolish the deductible. Just like: will he accept it if he doesn’t?

Another potential stumbling block is the subject of asylum. There is a package of measures to limit the influx, but the question is how far that goes. For example, it has been discussed to formally label the stalled asylum reception as a ‘crisis’, but that could conflict with international treaties. The question again is whether Pieter Omtzigt, who has made ‘good governance’ a mantra, can live with the agreements. “You know our agenda, you know our principles, we stand for the rule of law. I have to uphold that,” he emphatically repeated last week.

Agreed in broad terms

There are still life-size building blocks in place, while the formation seems to be taking place in a part-time mode, especially in the coming week. In the past period, people rarely talked for longer than three hours at a time, never on Fridays, rarely on Mondays and often in the absence of Dilan Yesilgöz, who was also still on the road as justice minister.

According to Omtzigt, this does not have to be a problem. “You know, it doesn’t necessarily have to be very long sessions. And not necessarily by sitting together.”

Omtzigt also says that there is no need to hold meetings about entire chunks of text: “It still concerns short texts, because we are working on an agreement in broad terms.” Nevertheless, it can already be heard in VVD circles that many parties would still like to agree on details when it comes to the major themes.

However short those final agreements may be, the question remains whether an agreement is possible at all. The answer will follow in the ‘finals week’.