Summary of the article
From its peak in February 2024, the PVV has been declining somewhat. This is mainly due to a decrease in the influx of VVD voters and hesitations among those who had not voted and who showed a preference for the PVV after the elections. The outcome of the European Parliament elections will depend greatly on developments in the formation in the coming weeks.
Read full article: PVV profit decreases slightly
Reading time: 2 minutes
Poll of the House of Representatives
The poll for the distribution of seats in the House of Representatives shows a somewhat less strong increase for the PVV compared to the result of last November. The maximum gain so far was 15 seats at the beginning of February when the formation talks were broken off because Pieter Omtzigt was the left discussions. Two weeks ago that was still 50 seats, but now it is 46. That is still 9 more than at the elections.
The decrease is mainly because those who did not vote on 22-11-23 now clearly mention less PVV than in February and the transitions from the VVD to PVV have also decreased.
VVD increases 2 seats compared to the previous poll, BBB increases 1 and FVD 1.
The PVV is still clearly larger than the parties in second and third place combined.
Now that the current phase of the formation should be completed in 10 days, it can be expected that whatever the outcome, there will be an impact on electoral relations. An impact that will mainly affect the forming parties.
European Parliament election poll
The European Parliament elections are 1 month away. The last time the turnout was 40%, half of that in the recent House of Representatives elections.
Developments in the formation in the coming month could have a major impact on the turnout and the results. The poll that has now been conducted cannot therefore be seen as a prediction, but more as the starting point of this moment.
The number of seats that the Netherlands will be able to distribute in those elections is 31. In 2019, there were 26 seats to be distributed. Since then, 3 more seats have been added based on the 2019 result. In the overview we use the distribution of 26+3=29 seats as a reference.
The electoral quota is 3.22%. This means that a party will not receive seats if that percentage is not achieved at least. 3.22% would mean 5 seats in the House of Representatives elections.
In this poll, the PVV gets as many seats as PvdA/GroenLinks. This would mean a gain of 8 seats for the PVV and a loss of 2 seats for PvdA/GroenLinks. (PvdA achieved a very good result with Timmermans – 19% – compared to that in the Provincial Council elections – 9% -).
This poll shows that 4 parties have a chance of gaining 1 seat, while they currently have 0 (NSC, BBB, SP and Volt). And three parties have a high chance of losing their one seat: ChristenUnie and SGP, which worked together last time and won 2 seats. Now, independently of each other, they run a great risk of not reaching the electoral quota. 50PLUS also seems to have no chance of retaining one seat.
The developments surrounding the formation could have a significant effect, especially for the largest parties. Either through different choices of the preferred party or through a clear increase or decrease in turnout. The key question will be to what extent potential PVV voters will continue to support that party in the coming weeks and to what extent they are prepared to turn out on June 6.
Depending on what happens then, the PVV can also go to 11 seats (with high turnout) or only achieve 5 seats (with low turnout).
