After a strong start to the week, the stock markets appear to be ready for a break on Tuesday. The opening indications show minute readings. The AEX is heading for a flat opening (+0.04%)
Fortunately, there is plenty on the agenda to keep us entertained and provide some local racing action. First let’s take a look at the broad market:
- European futures are almost flat
- In Asia, the Hang Seng index (Hong Kong) is 0.5% lower, with tech shares in particular weak (Baidu -2.4%, Tencent -1.6%)
- Japan (Nikkei) and Korea (Kospi) are clearly higher, but they still had a day to catch up after a long weekend
- Wall Street had a good day yesterday: S&P 500 +1%, Nasdaq +1.2%
- EUR/USD is fairly stable in the $1.07-$1.08 range
- The oil price (Brent) is pausing slightly above $83, after more than two weeks of steady decline
- Bitcoin and gold are holding steady at $63,590 and $2,321 respectively
Construction company Heijmans sounded the alarm early this morning with Q1 figures, which are positive in tone. At least the company has managed to avoid the setbacks that rival BAM encountered last week and maintains the previously given outlook.
From the press release:
Just like a month ago in the interview with IEX, Heijmans CEO Ton Hillen also wants to say something about the situation on the housing market in the explanation of the figures. At the moment, there is a lot of focus on expanding the range of affordable housing, he says.
“Attention to this part of the market is important, but we should not lose sight of flow. The housing market actually benefits from new homes in the middle and higher segments in favor of good flow, so that there are also more existing homes for starters become available”.
In the interview with IEX we asked Hillen what he would do first if he himself were minister of housing for a day:
Shortly after Heijmans, the Q1s of small cap Kendrion also rolled in. Kendrion is downsizing considerably after announcing last month that it is divesting its automotive division. In the remaining business, an (expected) decline in turnover was visible in Q1, but profitability is increasing thanks to “strict cost measures”.
AMG and the lithium price
That doesn’t end with Q1 figures on the Damrak, because raw materials house AMG is opening its books after hours this afternoon. In any case, the producer of ‘critical materials’ will show a sharp decline in Ebitda, no one doubts that. ING analysts are betting on $28 million in Q1, or a decline of 60% since last quarter.
The good news for AMG is that the decline in lithium prices, which is causing the company a lot of trouble, appears to have stabilized. There has even been a small revival this year.
Disney after the battle
Before the opening of Wall Street, Disney will first release quarterly figures – the first results since the recent battle at the company’s top, where CEO Bob Iger emerged as the winner. During the shareholders’ meeting, he managed to keep activist investor Nelson Peltz – you know him from Unilever – off the board.
The price has fallen somewhat since then, after a nice rally since October last year that resulted in a price increase of about 50%. At Disney – which is now reporting Q2 figures due to a broken financial year – a slight increase in turnover is expected compared to the same quarter a year ago. The consensus is for $22.1 billion and earnings per share of $1.10, both slightly lower than in the previous quarter (Q1).
A lot of attention will be paid to the developments at the streaming service Disney+, which is in the streaming wars for the time being lags behind competitor Netflix. After Disney+ reported a drop in subscribers last quarter following a price increase, the market will be eager to see that drop come to fruition. Netflix suffered a major price swing after excellent Q1 results; Disney will therefore have to come up with a good story to convince the market.
News
The headlines since yesterday’s close:
- 08:16 German exports unexpectedly increased
- 08:10 German factory orders unexpectedly dropped
- 08:10 AEX probably starts trading day in green
- 07:59 Increasing profitability at Kendrion
- 07:56 Heijmans is selling more homes
- 07:36 Arcadis receives multi-year contract in Canada
- 07:36 Update: Asian stock markets are divided
- 07:30 Siemens Healthineers sees results picking up
- 07:12 Japan’s service sector continues to grow
- 07:03 European stock markets are expected to open higher
- 06:56 Dutch inflation has indeed fallen
- 06:52 Stock market agenda: macroeconomic
- 06:51 Stock market agenda: foreign funds
- 06:50 Exhibition agenda: Dutch companies
- May 6 Stock market update: AEX on Wall Street
- May 6 Wall Street closed higher
- May 6 Oil price closed higher
- May 06 Feds Barkin: current Fed monetary policy can bring inflation to desired level
- May 6 Wall Street heads for a higher close
- May 6 European stock markets closed higher
agenda
Lots of quarterly figures today, of course, with some interesting things on the agenda after the close.
- 07:00 Infineon Q1 figures
- 07:00 UBS Q1 numbers
- 07:00 Zalando Q1 figures
- 07:00 Solvay Q1 figures
- 07:30 Heijmans Q1 figures
- 07:30 Kendrion Q1 figures
- 08:00 BP Q1 figures
- 08:00 Dui factory orders March
- 08:00 Dui trade balance March
- 11:00 Eurozone retail sales March
- 1:00 PM Nikola Q1 numbers
- 1:00 PM Disney Q2 numbers
- 13:00 Allfunds annual meeting
- 13:00 DSM Firmenich annual meeting
- 1:00 PM Philips annual meeting
- 1:00 PM TKH annual meeting
- 6:00 PM AMG Q1 figures
- 6:00 PM Marel Q1 figures
- 9:00 PM US Consumer Credit March
- 10:00 PM Lyft Q1 numbers
- 10:00 PM Reddit Q1 numbers
Advice
- Goldman Sachs raises ING’s price target to €17.50 from €16.70
- UBS increases the price target of Prosus to €50.00 from €46.00
- KBC Securities lowers the price target of TKH to €62.00 from €62.20
- RBC lowers Galapagos’ price target to €32.50 from €34.60
- KBC Securities increases its hold recommendation for PostNL to buy
Short positions
The top 10 short positions in the AFM register (source: Shortsell.nl)
And then this
Defense software company Palantir benefits from AI, but loses 10% after-market on a weaker-than-expected outlook
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He can suffer it, so to speak
Takeover? No gracias, says Sabadell
Pieter Kort is editor-in-chief of IEX Media. The information in this column is not intended as professional investment advice or as a recommendation to make certain investments.
