“The situation is partly so uncertain because the balance of power that has existed in the world for a long time has become out of balance,” the secret service writes in the report.
Chinese cyber spies are trying to discover the secrets of Dutch companies in order to make China even more powerful. Russia is trying to influence public opinion about Ukraine by supporting demonstrations against the Dutch government.
Sovereigns
Jihadist terrorists from ISKP are trying to make plans for attacks here. Sovereigns turn away from society and believe that the Netherlands is in fact ruled by a global elite. And in the meantime, the war in Gaza is causing growing polarization in the Netherlands and a greater threat to Jewish Dutch people.
Grim
‘National threats are increasingly linked to international developments. The grim picture that the AIVD already painted for 2022 has become worse in many respects in 2023,” the AIVD reports in its annual report.
AIVD boss Erik Akerboom: ‘The situation is partly so uncertain because the balance of power that existed in the world for a long time has become out of balance. Many countries try to strengthen their position at the expense of other countries. That is not an armed struggle. But there is conflict. It is not without reason that this period has been described as ‘the gray zone between war and peace’.
The dark picture painted by the AIVD is no surprise. The service has been warning for years about increasing espionage and influence from Russia and China. Moreover, in December the NCTV (National Coordinator for Counterterrorism and Security) increased the threat level in the Netherlands to the second highest level. That service estimates the risk of a terrorist attack in the Netherlands as ‘real’.
Russia
It is mainly international conflicts that pose a threat to the Netherlands. Russian spies have long been interested in the Netherlands, and this has only increased after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. According to the AIVD, Russian services ‘had a hand in demonstrations in the Netherlands against Western support for Ukraine’.
The aim was probably not to immediately disrupt communications or shut down the energy network, but to build in the possibility to do that later
The intelligence service also saw ‘several foreign cyber operations that probably had sabotage as the end goal’. These were operations that were specifically aimed at vital infrastructure. “The goal was probably not to immediately disrupt communications or shut down the energy network, but to build in the possibility to do that later. For example in the event of a conflict.”
The service does not report whether these operations took place in the Netherlands. However, the AIVD, together with military intelligence service MIVD, says it has discovered that Russian intelligence services were trying to gain unnoticed access to information systems of the Defense supply industry.
Gaza
The war in Gaza is also causing a lot of unrest and polarization in the Netherlands, the service writes. ‘For example, the conflict there could be a trigger for radical Muslims to commit attacks here. And the danger of jihadist attacks was already greater in 2023.’
The threat against Jewish and Israeli targets in the Netherlands has mainly increased. As an example, the AIVD cites the increased threat against the Israeli embassy in The Hague in November 2023.
According to the AIVD, the increased threat of an attack can be deduced, among other things, from the number of times that ‘urgent’ permission has been requested from the Minister of the Interior for the use of a special intelligence tool ‘in order to eliminate a potential threat against the Netherlands’. to take’.
The number of so-called emergency charges increased by 71 percent in one year.
But sometimes it turns out to be a false alarm, even when people are arrested.
The police also arrested four people in the Netherlands last year after a tip from the AIVD. These arrests sometimes turned out to be a false alarm. For example, in 2023, nine men from the Eindhoven region were acquitted by the judge of preparing an attack in the Netherlands. They were previously arrested after a tip from the AIVD.
The service makes a distinction between activism and extremism in the Gaza conflict: “Left-wing action groups have disrupted public order on several occasions, but it is doubtful that the threat of violence posed by the groups exceeds public order disruption.”
Sovereigns
The conflict in Gaza is also grist for the mill of conspiracy theorists, sovereigns and anti-government activists. “For them, the conflict in Gaza is once again a world event that they explain as the work of an evil elite, which aims to oppress (among others) the Dutch,” the AIVD writes.
‘One of their explanations is that the conflict did not start with the Hamas attacks on October 7, but that in fact everything was organized or authorized by the United States and Israel. Because this gives Western governments another pretext to take measures with which they can oppress the population.’
China
The intelligence service has announced that it will devote even more time and money in 2024 to investigating and countering the threat from China. “The greatest state threat, besides Russia, comes from China,” the annual report states.
‘China is now one of the leading world powers. It has arrived at this position by using almost every means available: the AIVD has been warning for years that China is damaging the earning capacity of Dutch businesses through cyber attacks, use of espionage, insiders, clandestine investments and illegal exports.
Resilience with AI
The intelligence service also points out the possible dangers of AI (artificial intelligence). ‘The AIVD is investigating what AI can contribute to the resilience of the Netherlands, what risks the technology entails and how you can protect yourself against them, and how you can secure AI systems.’
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