Koran burnings and Israel-Hamas war ‘increase the risk of a terrorist attack in the Netherlands’

The General Intelligence and Security Service (AIVD) writes this in its annual report, which was presented on Tuesday afternoon by director Erik Akerboom. The AIVD has called global jihadism ‘the greatest terrorist threat against the Netherlands for years’. According to the AIVD, Al Qaeda and ISIS and groups affiliated with them pose the greatest danger.

According to the AIVD, the fact that this threat has increased in the past year has to do with current events such as Koran destruction and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict – potential reasons for radical Muslims to carry out a terrorist attack.

In this light, the intelligence service points to the attack in Brussels last year. In October, a Tunisian shot dead two Swedish football fans on behalf of IS. Although his motive cannot be determined with certainty, he probably did it because of some Quran burnings that had taken place in Sweden in the months before.

The intelligence service also writes in the report that Western security services, including the AIVD, have foiled ‘at least a dozen’ plans for an attack in Europe in the past year. Also in the Netherlands: arrests followed in four cases after the AIVD shared information. The plans ranged from stabbing random people to concrete preparations for attacks on specific buildings and events.

Conclusions no surprise

The intelligence service’s conclusions do not come as a complete surprise. Last December, the National Coordinator for Counterterrorism and Security (NCTV) increased the threat level in the Netherlands from 3 (significant) to 4 (substantial), partly for the same reasons as those given by the AIVD. The NCTV then took additional security measures ‘where necessary’, but did not specify these further.

As in previous years, the AIVD also warns in the annual report about the threat from China. “China continued to challenge the world order in 2023,” the intelligence agency wrote. ‘The Chinese government aims to become a major leading nation in the world. The consequences of this for other countries, including the Netherlands, could be extensive and far-reaching.’

For example, the AIVD points to Dutch companies that can fall victim to Chinese cyber attacks, espionage, insiders, clandestine investments and illegal exports – means that China used in the past. Discovering and preventing this was ‘one of the priorities’ for the AIVD last year.

Nevertheless, the intelligence service, which collaborates with the Dutch military intelligence service MIVD in its investigation into China, wants to focus even more on China in the coming years. “China is now actually able to bend global relations to its will,” the AIVD writes in the press release. ‘The consequences of this for the Netherlands could be drastic. That is why the AIVD will have to intensify its investigation into the threats from China.’ What exactly that will look like is not specified.