Too much and too little water: the Netherlands faces major challenges | climate

In the Delta Scenarios, the largest challenges for the Netherlands in the field of water are listed once every six years. Deltares scientists studied four scenarios for 2050 and 2100, taking into account climate change, climate policy, population growth and economic growth.

It is remarkable that in all four scenarios the Netherlands will face major challenges in the coming century. Not only until 2050 – the year in which the Netherlands and the EU want to be climate neutral – but also beyond. These challenges differ slightly per region, but largely overlap.

“Our water challenges are becoming larger, more complex and longer lasting and will also occur in more places,” says Renske de Winter, the author of the study.

An important conclusion is that the pressure on the freshwater supply in the Netherlands increases in the summer. The (drinking) water demand is increasing due to population growth, urbanization and agriculture, while in the near future there will be less fresh water available. This in turn has to do with salinization, precipitation shortages and evaporation.

Climate change only exacerbates these situations, because it ensures that it is dry and warm more often. We also experience more downpours in the summer and long, wet periods in the winter. This was previously evident from the KNMI climate scenarios, which form an important scientific basis for this research.

Due to weather extremes, flooding is also increasing. The pressure on sewerage and drains is increasing, especially in urban areas. Local systems become overloaded because the water cannot drain fast enough. In the worst case, roads are impassable and hospitals inaccessible, the researchers warn.

The high tide at the turn of the year is probably still on the minds of most Dutch people. The Delta Scenarios show that such high water levels will occur more often, due to sea level rise, among other things.

And although we are used to quite a bit in the Netherlands, it can cause problems. More and more people are living behind dikes, which means the impact of floods is also increasing. Infrastructure such as electricity grids are therefore in trouble.

This scenario has been taken into account in the dike reinforcement program up to 2050. But if sea levels continue to rise at this rate, there will be major challenges even after 2050.

The Netherlands is able to adapt to the water challenges described above, but a lot needs to be done to achieve this. The report shows possibilities to organize the country differently to become future-proof: dike heightening, river widening, construction-free zones in floodplains. But also by “living with water”, for example by building floating houses or houses on stilts.

“Our classic approach with technical measures in the water system is starting to become a problem,” says Delta Commissioner Co Verdaas. “We must organize our country in such a way that we can better cope with extremes. This does not happen automatically, but requires choices that intervene in our living environment and the way we use our land and water.”

The analysis further shows that ambitious climate policy offers results. If the world is climate neutral by 2050, water problems will decrease. Then tackling nuisance, safety and water supply will become a lot easier, the researchers say.

De Winter: “I hope that the research provides insights into how we can make our delta future-robust, so that we can continue to live here for a long time to come.”

The Delta Scenarios will be presented on Wednesday to Delta Commissioner Verdaas and outgoing Minister Mark Harbers of Infrastructure and Water Management. The research serves as a basis for research and policy surrounding water in the Netherlands.