This season there is a team in the first division that has lost only one of its last ten away games. The same team only left the field as losers four times in the entire season so far – 37 games; that is, rounded up, in 11% of the matches. In other words: that team only loses one of the nine games it plays. For the very last defeat we even have to go back to February 5, the weekend before carnival.
Quotations
You would say that if you wanted to put money on that team before the last matchday, you would not expect too much profit. However, nothing could be further from the truth in the case of Roda JC, because that is the team that can produce the above excellent figures. The proud number two of the first division hopes to be promoted to the Premier League on Friday with at least a draw in the Euroborg against FC Groningen. But gambling Netherlands seems to be writing off Roda’s chances even before the ball starts rolling in Groningen. At least if the odds are anything to go by.
Bet a tenner on Roda in and against Groningen and you can credit 34 euros in profit to your account if Bas Sibum’s men actually win. A victory for FC Groningen will only earn you 7.20 euros on Friday with a bet of ten euros. In other words: Groningen is a heavy favorite.
Bookmakers
The search for the answer to the question of why this is the case starts at the source: the bookmakers. But both Unibet and BetCity, two leading sports betting providers, encounter problems The Limburger on a wall of customer service employees who are unwilling or unable to help us, out of office replies and silent press officers. Too bad, because we would like to talk to Unibet in particular about Telstar-Groningen. According to a gambler who had placed money on that match and with whom The Limburger had contact, the Unibet app last Friday evening briefly, very briefly, mistakenly stated a score of 2-1 in Velsen. This could well be the source of the legendary faux pas by stadium speaker Wim Frijns that traveled the world this week. In email communications with this gambler that this newspaper has seen, Unibet at least acknowledges that there was an ‘incorrect settlement’ and ‘adjustment to the correct result after the match’.
Unfortunately, the bookmakers are silent. Fortunately, there is CasinoNieuws.nl, the independent news site in the field of (online) gambling, sports betting and poker in our country. Editor-in-chief Frank op de Woerd would love to explain it to us, but he has an even better idea: “I will have Jeffrey Noeken, one of my people, call you. He is an authority in the field of sports betting and a hardcore fan of… FC Groningen.”
Ha! Well, Jeffrey, tell us, why does everyone think that your club is going to block the way to the Premier League for our cowers, who have been in a promotion spot for almost the entire season? And don’t make it too technical, even laymen should be able to understand it.
“Bookmakers try to predict the outcome of a match in advance as best as possible.”
Clear, but how do they do that?
“All major bookmakers in the Netherlands collect data prior to a match. By the way, they don’t do that themselves. They pay a company for that. The big boys all purchase data from the same company, which means they also offer the same quotes.”
What kind of information should we think about?
“A lot is based on previous results, injuries and suspensions, and especially expected goals in previous matches. That kind of information is collected. Data models then calculate the chance that, for example, FC Groningen will win the match. That chance is shown in a quote. ”
Aha, so the odds are determined based on the outcome of those data models?
“Correct. That is the odds when the betting market opens. After that, the bookmaker wants to maintain balance, which means that they do not want to take too much risk and always try to make a profit. As soon as a lot of money is bet on Groningen, for example, the bookmaker increases Roda’s odds.”
Yes, and that odds are significantly higher than that of FC Groningen. We find this strange here in Limburg.
“I know what you mean. Based on the entire season, you would expect that the odds of Roda and Groningen would be a little closer to each other. And they are also creeping closer to each other. Anyone who puts a tenner on Roda JC on Tuesday evening will receive 43 euros if they win. If you do that now, on Wednesday afternoon, you will earn ‘only’ 34 euros. While profit for Groningen now yields a little more.”
But still, the vast majority of gamblers put their money on FC Groningen. However?
“Yes, you can assume that with these odds. What will play a role in this is the expensive selection of FC Groningen, much more expensive than that of Roda. And the home advantage on Friday also weighs very heavily. And it wouldn’t surprise me if the bizarre scenes from last Friday also play a role.”
What do you mean?
“If I were a Roda player who had already lifted the fans’ shoulders on Friday evening to celebrate the promotion, I think it would be haunting my head all week: pffff, what if things still go wrong on Friday?’ Gamblers also think about this and I think there are plenty of them who also take that into account when betting.”
The Groningen fan in the betting market analyst resonates here, I fear. But that they forgive you. Are you still going to bet on the match?
“No! That is a golden rule: never bet on matches of your own club, because you cannot approach that match objectively. Although, sometimes it ends well.”
Oh yeah?
“A friend of mine has been betting against his own club all season this season. He saw the preparation and knew: this won’t work at all. Even before the start of the competition, he also bet money on relegation.”
Good heavens, what gambler would bet money on relegation for his own club?
“He is for Vitesse. By the way, he donated the money he won from that bet, 1,000 euros, to the club.”
Respect, what a hero, what club love! Finally, who will win on Friday and will you be there?
“I have had a season ticket for a long time. After moving from Groningen to Brabant, I kept it for another year, but that is not possible, especially now that I have children. So I’m sitting in front of the television on Friday evening. It will be a very difficult game for Groningen. I’m quite anxious about the match, but I also know what a full Euroborg can do. I hope we avoid 2-0 very soon, then it will be over.”
