Moscow has deployed an enormous number of units to the front in Ukraine, says former commander of the Army Mart de Kruif. “But it is not the case that the Russians are breaking through en masse and there is panic.” According to him, there is no question of a major Russian offensive yet.
‘Ukraine has Russian advance under control’
4 min 43 sec
There is no doubt that the Ukrainian armed forces are experiencing difficult days and weeks. According to the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian army, General Oleksandr Syrsky, Ukrainians are oppressed in several places at the front and are confronted with large Russian superior forces.
‘That may sound crazy, but it is true’
De Kruif acknowledges this, who nevertheless points out that Ukraine has largely controlled the Russian advance. ‘That may sound crazy, but it is true. It is not that the Russians are breaking through and there is panic.’
Numerical superiority of the Russians
However, the numerical superiority of the Russians is striking. ‘The Russians are deploying so many people that Ukraine has to choose not to hold out in the trenches, but to always go back one trench. Otherwise they will lose far too many people, and Ukraine must be careful with its people.’
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The biggest battle is taking place in two places in Donetsk province, says De Kruif, both south and north of the provincial capital of the same name. ‘In both cases, the Russians have deployed many units to attack. Especially in the south near Avdiivka, they have deployed more than ten thousand people. That is a lot. It concerns a division that comes from the Russian reserves, with new units, and therefore fresh forces.’
Several hundred meters per day
Yet the Russian victories are not really significant, says the former commander. ‘It goes by several hundred meters per day.’ He would call it anything but a breakthrough at the front. “The Russians may want to show that they have gained ground on May 9 – the symbolic Victory Day.”
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According to De Kruif, we will only really see in the coming weeks and months what it means if the Russians start an offensive and Ukraine a counter-offensive. ‘We are not at that stage yet.’ The effect of the new American aid package to Ukraine will only then become clear.
