Weakened Ukrainian units face Russian superior forces and have to give up ground

For the first time in months, American weapons and boxes of ammunition are on their way to the front in Ukraine. But especially on the eastern front lines, in the Donbas, it is becoming increasingly clear that this help comes not a day too soon for the often overtired and undermanned Ukrainian units. Due to serious shortages of manpower, anti-aircraft defenses and artillery shells, they are increasingly pushed back by advancing Russians, who are numerically outnumbered in every respect.

President Volodymyr Zelensky on Monday once again urged the faster delivery of aid. “I don’t see anything positive on this point today. There are deliveries, they have started a little, but the process needs to be accelerated.” His comments followed a somber comment Sunday from the commander of the armed forces, General Oleksandr Syrsky. He reported that his troops had again withdrawn from three villages in the Donetsk region. “The situation at the front has deteriorated,” Syrsky wrote. “In an attempt to strategically take the initiative and break the front line, the enemy is focusing its operations in different places, creating a significant advantage in manpower and equipment.”

Certainly compared to the situation of the past eighteen months, in which the front line changed little despite heavy fighting, the recent Russian territorial gains in the Donbas are striking. These are the largest Russian conquests since the first months after the massive invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

The Russian advance continues, especially west and northwest of the destroyed industrial town of Avdiivka, which the Russians captured in February. This is where the situation for Ukraine is “the most difficult,” according to General Syrsky. The front line in this part of the Donbas has now shifted to the village of Ocheretyne, where the Russians recently broke through the Ukrainian positions and gained several kilometers of territory in a short time. Here, Moscow has conquered almost twenty kilometers of territory since February, according to Syrsky with the deployment of four brigades – around 32,000 soldiers. They would like to push on from Ocheretyne by road to the city of Pokrovsk, one of Ukraine’s military-logistics centers in the western Donbas.

American ammunition

Several military analysts, including those from the Institute for the Study of War, point out that the current Russian operations are linked to the recently resumed US military support to Ukraine after months of delays. Before American weapons and ammunition reach the battlefield, Moscow would like to make the most of current shortages on the Ukrainian side. It could take weeks, possibly even months, before Ukrainian forces manage to stabilize the situation along the eastern frontline.

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Because the military planners in Kyiv have even more problems in the Donbas. More than forty kilometers northeast of Ocheretyne, the town of Chasiv Yar has been under attack for months by about 25,000 Russian soldiers, including from the 98th Airborne Division. Chasiv Yar is the most important Russian target since the capture of Bachmut a year ago. A few weeks ago, the Russians already penetrated the eastern outskirts of the higher and strategically important Chasiv Yar, about ten kilometers west of the destroyed Bachmut.

Open area

If Chasiv Yar is indeed captured, a flat terrain with few natural obstacles will open up towards logistics centers such as Kramatorsk in the northwest and especially Kostjantynivka in the southwest.

The deputy commander of the Fifth Ukrainian Assault Brigade, Michajlo Onoefer, described to the Ukrainian online medium on Monday Pravda how difficult that terrain is to defend. “It will be very difficult for us to gain a foothold in the villages, because there are no large structures here, there are no ‘Azovstal’ factories where you can entrench yourself for a long time.” Azovstal is the factory complex in the southern port city of Mariupol where Ukrainian fighters held out for several months in 2022.

Onoefer learned from the previous Russian offensives in Ukraine. “Everything we lose we will have to regain, and that is much more difficult: the losses are greater when you are on the offensive. Moreover, we have seen that the enemy digs in very quickly.”

According to Ukrainian military analysts at Frontelligence, as well as observers from the Institute for the Study of War, an attack on Kostjantynivka is a logical next Russian step.

According to these analyses, the Ukrainian problems in the Donbas will pile up even further if Moscow manages to combine the two offensives: from Chasiv Yar to the south and from Ocheretyne to the north. That would allow the Russians to capture roads leading east from Kostjantynivka to the front. “This would be a serious problem,” Frontelligence said, “because it would cut off tens of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers from their logistical support.”

Real risk

They estimate that operation to be a difficult military undertaking for the Russians, but according to them, under the current circumstances, it is a “real risk” that Ukraine runs if Russian troops are able to advance at both Chasiv Yar and Ocheretyne.

The Russians had ample opportunity to attack during the winter months, partly due to the enormous Ukrainian shortages of weapons, ammunition and men. In some places on the front, the Russians have ten times as many artillery shells and five times as many men as the Ukrainian defenders.

For example, Frontelligence notes about the Ukrainians: “Some brigades have not been properly rotated for two years, and if they have, they have received minimal replacement of vehicles and heavy military equipment. That’s because much of the equipment from the 2023 military support was allocated to newly formed units that took part in the summer offensive. Given Russia’s superior numbers in personnel, artillery, vehicles and air support, it is no surprise that some areas have been captured.”

This superiority gives the Russians, despite the enormous losses they still suffer, a relatively large amount of time to dig into their newly occupied positions.

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