Ukrainian soldiers are still very combative. Yet Floris Akkerman, Eastern Europe reporter for NRC and co-host of BNR’s Perestrojkast, gets the feeling for the first time that Ukraine could lose the war with Russia. ‘Ukrainian soldiers I spoke to said that many Russian soldiers can really do something; They’re really not cake bakers.’
The irony is that the Russian army has learned a lot after a disastrous first year of war, not least from their ‘inventive and creative’ Ukrainian opponents, says Akkerman. ‘The Russians are learning from this, including when using drones. Ukrainian soldiers say they are really up against a strong force, not just against people who serve as cannon fodder there.”
‘They don’t know any better, while they are in the prime of their lives, want to travel, start a family and have a normal working day’
For the first time since the Russian invasion in 2022, Akkerman was struck by the realization that Ukraine could lose the war. In conversations with soldiers and experts, among others, he was told that this is actually the darkest period the country has been in since the invasion, including air attacks on cities such as Kharkiv and difficulties at the front, with a growing superior force of the Russians. ‘A few soldiers I spoke to said that there is no doubt that Khasiv Yar will fall.
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Moreover, the ratio between Russian and Ukrainian drones and tanks is still ten to one. It is still difficult to define what ‘losing’ exactly means and where the war ends. ‘In my view, this means that you will lose essential territory – although a Russian conquest of Kharkiv does not seem likely at the moment. ‘There you see trucks with tree trunks and concrete slabs leaving Kharkiv to build defense lines at higher strategic locations.’
Fighting all adult life
Slowly but surely, morale among Ukrainians also seems to be eroding. Akkerman was particularly struck by the great fatigue, including among the soldiers. “For us the war started in February 2022, but for the Ukrainians it actually started in 2014.” This means that soldiers who are now 26 years old have been fighting their entire adult lives. ‘They don’t know any better, while they are in the prime of their lives, want to travel, start a family and have a normal working day.’
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What the Ukrainians need above all are successes. In fact, the liberation of Kherson in November 2022 was the last major success, says Akkerman. It is nice that the Russian fleet in the Black Sea has been pushed back considerably, but you also want to see that you also regain some territory. It does not yet mean that Ukraine wants to negotiate. ‘Soldiers I spoke to so far say that Putin will not stop if you start talking now. They want to prevent Russia from taking over the country.’
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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky also appears to be holding on to continuing the war. According to Akkerman, he knows very well that he has to listen carefully to the population. ‘The past has proven that in Ukraine: before you know it, if you as president do something against the will of the people, Maidan Square will be full and you will be hanged. And he apparently sees that there is still enough enthusiasm to keep fighting.’
