Climate change is giving countries that previously had no wine culture new opportunities: Kyrgyzstan, Ireland and Ethiopia could also become a paradise for wine growers. French and Italian scientists write this in a study on climate change. The research was published in Nature Reviews Earth & Environment.
Europe is still the largest wine producing region in the world. But hard blows can occur, the study shows. ‘If global warming becomes much worse, most regions around the Mediterranean will become unsuitable for wine growing.’
This has to do with rising temperatures, but also with decreasing rainfall in the coming years and decades. There will be increasing water shortages. It is already dry in countries around the Mediterranean Sea and will only get drier.
Low-lying areas and coastal areas in Spain, Italy and Greece are particularly at risk if global warming rises above 2 degrees. “If that happens, 90 percent of the wine regions there could disappear by the end of this century,” the researchers write.
“That scenario could come true if global warming is 4 degrees. That may be extreme, but it is the direction we are heading,” says Kees van Leeuwen, one of the authors of the study and affiliated with Bordeaux Sciences Agro agricultural university.
Bad for the taste
In France, the south is particularly at risk: regions such as Languedoc and Provence. There too, grapes have to deal with too high temperatures and too much drought. As a result, fewer grapes grow and the return for the winegrower decreases. But also important for the consumer: the taste and quality of the wine deteriorate. And that will cause sales to drop. Due to the combination of these two factors – lower returns and lower quality – wine companies will increasingly fail.
On average, 20 to 70 percent of all current vineyards in Europe will disappear this century, ‘depending on the degree of warming’. The same trend can be seen in other parts of the world. With high temperature increases, southern California becomes unsuitable for viticulture, as does Mexico and inland Australia.
“Temperature rises and drought will affect wine regions in hot and dry regions worldwide, with enormous social and economic consequences,” the researchers said. Grapes provide employment and trade. Within horticulture, after potatoes and tomatoes, the most money is spent on the grape harvest: about 68 billion dollars per year.
Different kind
The changes can partly be countered if wine growers ‘adapt’. “You can choose other grapes that are more resistant to drought and heat,” says Kees van Leeuwen. “You can also plant grape vines in other ways and prune them in other ways, so that they are more resistant to climate change. Finally, you can irrigate, but that is a short-term solution, given the increasing water shortages.”
At the same time, the researchers admit that these adjustments are no longer possible for some areas. For example, the south of Spain is already suffering so much from climate change that innovations can hardly or hardly cope with it. “For example, they already use grapes that are very heat-resistant. So if it gets even warmer, you won’t be able to choose other grapes.”
Yet it is not all pain and suffering, it says Nature. Climate change also offers new opportunities. “New vineyards may arise in regions that were previously unsuitable for this,” the French and Italian scientists write. Where it used to be too cold, the rising temperature may soon be perfect for grapes. And in warm areas you can plant grape vines at higher altitudes, in mountain areas, where the temperature is lower.”
Poland and Denmark
The researchers mention Poland, Kyrgyzstan and Denmark as examples. Even high altitude areas in Ethiopia offer opportunities.
In Europe, more wine regions may be added than they disappear. Scenarios are conceivable that the surface area of European vineyards will increase net by 40 to 60 percent by the end of this century, the report states. ‘But those are theories and there are many more factors at play than just climate change.’ Yet there are already examples of major shifts. Because anyone who thought that the British only drink beer is wrong. “In the United Kingdom, the area of vineyards has already increased by 400 percent between 2004 and 2021.”
‘The wine consumer must be educated’
“Grape varieties have become ‘brands’ nowadays,” says Kees van Leeuwen of the agricultural university in Bordeaux. “Until thirty to forty years ago, the label of wine bottles stated which region the wine came from. Now it almost only shows the grape variety. This makes consumers think they are specialists. They know which grape variety they like. That’s what they’re looking for. But what happens then? A winegrower simply plants what sells.
If the Sauvignon Blanc grape becomes popular, more winegrowers will work with the Sauvignon Blanc grape. But that grape, for example, is not suitable for warm areas at all. If a wine grower in such an area still wants that grape, he has to irrigate heavily, for example, which costs an enormous amount of water. Consumers could do with some education about this. And the same grape does not always taste the same: a Merlot from Portugal tastes very different from a Merlot from Bordeaux.”
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Tags: Researchers warn vineyards Spain France Italy disappearing due drought
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