Disagreements on trade and Russia at the center of US visit without progress to China

Small steps forward, such as a joint summit on AI or Chinese efforts to combat the production of the addictive painkiller fentanyl, should give the impression that the US and China have found their way back to partnership despite irreconcilable differences. The bad atmosphere following an incident involving a Chinese balloon in US airspace in January 2023, which resulted in a lengthy communications shutdown, has given way to an exchange of diplomatic mantras.

Before Blinken made his appearance with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, he sat at the table with his colleague Wang Yi for no less than five and a half hours. The Chinese foreign minister appeared frustrated. The relationship, which reached the bottom of a downward spiral last year, may have “stabilized,” but Wang notes that “the negative factors are building up.”

Factors such as US threats of even more sanctions due to the enormous quantities of cheap Chinese products on the world market, in retaliation for Chinese trade activities with Russia, because Chinese companies are alleged to participate in human rights violations or pose a threat to US national security. No matter what China does, the “endless” US measures to “suppress” China’s progress are not going away, Wang said.

The Chinese are annoyed by the ‘thwarting’ of China’s development, especially now that Beijing is trying to get out of the economic malaise by exporting high-tech. The Chinese industry, which partly relies on state subsidies, is struggling with overcapacity and the world market is noticing this. If Chinese steel was a problem ten years ago and Chinese footwear twenty years ago, now cheap Chinese electric cars are flooding the world.

‘We’ve seen that film before and we know the ending. American businesses are being crushed, American jobs are disappearing. President Biden will not let that happen,” Blinken said at his press conference in Beijing after the summit. He did not say exactly how Washington would approach this.

One-way traffic

In an imperturbable tone, Xi lectured Blinken: Washington only sees China as a country that must be ‘kept small’. It is high time that the US deals differently with this ‘fundamental’ issue, Xi said. ‘It’s like the first button on a shirt: this has to fit properly to really stabilize the Sino-American relationship… (…) Cooperation is not a one-way street.’

In other words: we do our best to smoothen the relationship and expect improvement from your side, otherwise a new crisis is lurking. That warning must have hit home, because one of Blinken’s goals in Beijing was prevention. He wants to prevent that in this turbulent election year full of undoubtedly fierce anti-China rhetoric, every American step on China immediately degenerates into a crisis on all fronts. That is why the US now says that it does not want to hinder China’s development and, in turn, China says that it is not looking for enmity with the US.

As long as we keep repeating that, things will not go off the rails, the thinking goes, but the reality outside the meeting room does not cooperate. Despite all possible sanctions, a Russian ship linked to the transport of North Korean weapons to Russia is floating in a Chinese port less than a three-hour flight from Beijing, Reuters reported.

Influencing elections

Possible Chinese interference in the American elections later this year will also put a heavy burden on the already fragile relationship. Blinken told CNN at the end of his trip that the US has seen evidence that China is trying to “influence and interfere” in the election. He also said that in his conversations in recent days he has reiterated President Joe Biden’s warning to Xi at a summit in the US last November. Biden then warned his Chinese counterpart not to intervene in the presidential election. Xi would have agreed to that.

But when asked whether the Chinese president is making good on that promise, Blinken said: “We have seen evidence overall of attempts at influence and interference, and we want to make sure that that ends as quickly as possible. “Any interference by China in our elections is something we are looking at very carefully and is completely unacceptable to us, so I wanted to make sure they heard that message again.”

Sanctions against Chinese banks

Recently, Western capitals also raised the alarm about the way Chinese companies are dealing with so-called dual use goods for civilian and military use keep the Russian war machine running. Although China does not supply Russia with weapons, this export is borderline as far as the European Union, NATO and the US are concerned. If China doesn’t address this problem, we will do it ourselves,” Blinken said. Over the past week, U.S. government officials hinted that sanctions against Chinese banks are a possibility.

Earlier in the day, Chinese and Russian defense ministers shook hands warmly at a regional security meeting in Kazakhstan to seal their pledge to take their military cooperation to the next level. Next month, when Xi returns from a visit to France, Serbia and Hungary, his ‘partner without limits’, Russian President Vladimir Putin, will visit him. If Xi is willing to slow down on Russia, he did not show any signs to Blinken. There is nothing wrong with ‘regular trade’ between China and Russia, Xi countered.

Blinken concluded his grueling agenda on a cheerful note. That contacts between ordinary Chinese and Americans contribute to mutual understanding is one of the few things on which Washington and Beijing fully agree. That’s why Blinken walked into a record store, because music is “the great connector,” according to Blinken. He went to the airport with albums by Taylor Swift and Chinese rocker Dou Wei.