Defense expert Ko Colijn has been providing Dutch people with insight into armed conflicts for fifty years. This time he discusses the new arms support from the United States to Ukraine and the effect this package could have on other Western countries.
Nu het Amerikaanse Congres akkoord is met 61 miljard dollar (ruim 56 miljard euro) wapenhulp aan Oekraïne, is de Russische tactiek duidelijk. Voordat de Amerikaanse granaten in Oekraïne zijn, moet er zo snel mogelijk met grof geschut zoveel mogelijk terreinwinst geboekt worden.
Overspeelt Rusland daarmee zijn hand? Het probeert uit alle macht nog enig succes te boeken voordat de Amerikaanse granaten arriveren. Maar de terreinwinst is ook het gevolg van het terugtrekken van Oekraïense troepen naar beter verdedigbare linies.
Zelfs de gevreesde Russische oorlogseconomie kan het huidige tempo niet volhouden. Die oorlogseconomie draait nu dag en nacht en maakt 2,5 keer zoveel granaten als voorheen. Van sommige munitiesoorten worden er zelfs zestig keer zoveel gemaakt. Maar westerse sancties zorgen voor een chiptekort en de Russische productie is nu weliswaar hoog, maar steeds ‘ouderwetser’.
De Financial Times stelde vorige week vast dat er nu zes keer minder Russische granaten worden verschoten dan in het najaar van 2022 (60.000 om 10.000). De Russische productie is simpelweg niet genoeg om het ‘schiettempo’ bij te benen.
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Russia is increasingly using super-fast missiles
Russia and Ukraine must therefore rely on other means. Russia from merciless bombings with drones, hover bombs and missiles. Ukraine of spectacular outbreaks in Crimea and the Russian hinterland. But Ukraine has little defense against Russian missiles in particular.
Russia has increasingly turned to ‘elusive’ super-fast ballistic missiles. It fired almost four hundred in the first months of this year, 40 percent of the total since February 2022. Hence the continued call from Kyiv for Patriots and similar air defense systems. Only with this can the Russian missiles be brought down.
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West not eager to supply air defense systems
More air defense So. But the reports about this are confusing. No one seems to know exactly who, what, where and how much. A year ago it was leaked that Ukraine only had two Patriot systems. These were located in strictly secret locations, but were apparently enough to protect a city like Kyiv against Russian (cruise) missiles and aircraft. That is now too little.
Ukraine would now certainly have four systems: one from the US, two from Germany (which has now promised another) and one from the Netherlands. Only Germany has officially confirmed that it has delivered a Patriot system. Other countries, such as Romania, may also supply, but are too shy to say so openly.
President Volodymyr Zelensky reiterated in mid-April that Ukraine needs at least seven systems to keep the Russians at bay. That was actually modest, because this year alone Russia has unleashed nine thousand bombs on Ukrainian cities and power plants, and dozens of ballistic missiles that can only be neutralized by Patriots and S-300 systems.
Western countries are not exactly lining up to supply those systems. Turkey said it needs Patriots because Greece has them and Greece said the same thing. Spain says it can’t miss them either. Poland cannot supply them without American backing.
A year ago, some experts said that the Netherlands should also count its knots, because the port of Rotterdam would then be very exposed. Port director Boudewijn Siemons rejected that argument last week, because the Patriot is highly mobile. The Netherlands still has a Patriot system that has been sent to the US for maintenance. As soon as that is back, it can best go to Ukraine.
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American support sets other countries in motion
After Joe Biden dragged his $61 billion aid package away from the gates of hell, the American president announced an emergency shipment of 10 percent of the promised material last week.
There is a secret number of Patriot missiles among them. But the order will first reach the American arms industry. It sounds cynical, but that’s where the champagne corks will pop first.
Yet the US aid that has been released already has a major advantage. Other countries can no longer hide behind the argument that they cannot spare their missiles. If they have too few, they can call the American arms manufacturer Raytheon to replenish their stock.
That company will also make additional Patriot parts in Spain and Germany. That will take at least a year. Hopefully the calf hasn’t drowned yet.
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Tags: Colijn supply Western antiaircraft defense Ukraine War Ukraine
