Turbulent day in Gaza: ‘In fact, Netanyahu prefers the most fanatical members of his government over the relationship with the US’

ODespite repeated warnings from Western allies not to do so, Israel has invaded the city of Rafah. Early on Tuesday morning, tanks rolled towards the border town of the occupied Gaza Strip, where there are an estimated 1.4 million Palestinians. The border strip with Egypt was occupied, meaning Gaza is now completely cut off from the world. It is the preliminary culmination of two turbulent days, in which Gazans were torn between hope and fear.

“I can hear the gunfire and explosions,” 24-year-old Fatma al-Jabari said on the phone. She comes from Gaza City in the north, and had to flee several times with her family before ending up in Rafah, their current residence. They live in a tent full of flies and insects. ‘We are tired and frustrated. We hope every day that this war will end.’

On Monday evening, a six-week ceasefire appeared within reach after Hamas agreed to a proposal drawn up by Egyptian mediators. Children took to the streets in Rafah cheering, their parents burst into tears of joy. “Everyone was dancing,” Al-Jabari said. It turned out to be premature: there was no green light from Tel Aviv. According to Prime Minister Netanyahu, the text did not meet the Israeli ‘basic conditions’, and the raid on Rafah should continue as normal. Israel did indicate that it wanted to continue talks with Hamas.

Complete surprise

What exactly happened behind the scenes is unclear, there are different versions. It is clear that the sudden ‘yes’ from Hamas took Netanyahu’s war cabinet completely by surprise on Monday. The feverish diplomatic consultation led by Egypt, Qatar and the US seemed to be heading for failure this weekend, as positions differed widely on a few crucial points. For Hamas, a ceasefire must be the prelude to an end to the war. For Israel, this is formally non-negotiable as long as Hamas is not completely defeated.

The probable text of the Egyptian proposal, leaked to TV channel Al Jazeera, shows that a three-phase compromise was in the works. The first phase included a six-week ‘temporary truce’. Hamas would release 33 hostages in exchange for a yet-to-be-determined number of Palestinian prisoners. In phase two, this would transition into a full Israeli military withdrawal, the release of the remaining hostages and a period of ‘sustained calm’.

The latter phrase was chosen with the consent of Israel, American sources confirmed The New York Times, to prevent Israeli loss of face. ‘Calm’ is different from a complete end to the war, and offers room for multiple interpretations. Finally, phase three was about an end to the blockade of Gaza and a start to reconstruction.

Welles-nietes game

Netanyahu’s rejection of this package led to a public yes-or-no game with the US government; a painful spectacle for these close allies. Anonymous Israeli negotiators accused the Americans of negotiating with Hamas behind their backs. “It looked like a completely new proposal,” an anonymous Israeli official said. This is denied on the US side. A negotiator told Reuters that the text approved by Hamas was virtually identical to an Israeli proposal from late April. A second accused Israel of not having negotiated ‘in good faith’.

Somewhat cynically speaking, you could attribute a double victory to Hamas, at least for now. To the global audience, they are no longer the ones blocking a ceasefire, it is Israel. Moreover, they have driven a new wedge between Israel and the US.

In addition, they are also the source of major divisions within Netanyahu’s governing coalition. Itamar Ben-Gvir (National Security) and Bezalel Smotrich (Finance), two extremist ministers, threatened to topple Netanyahu’s government if Rafah was not raided. Such a premature cabinet fall would mean new elections in Israel and a possible prison sentence for Netanyahu, who is embroiled in a fraud case.

Military pressure

With the military operation in and around Rafah, Netanyahu is trying to keep Ben-Gvir and Smotrich on friendly terms, thinks Nomi Bar-Yaacov, a Middle East specialist at the independent British think tank Chatham House. “In fact, Netanyahu now prefers the most fanatical members of his government over his relationship with the US.”

In Israel, some will argue that military pressure has done its work. The Rafah operation had not yet begun when Hamas went through the motions. According to that (optimistic) reading of events, the occupation of the Rafah border is only intended to tighten the thumbscrews and secure slightly better conditions for a ceasefire. For Gazans, that would be little comfort after seven months of war – and nothing more.